Ethereum's price remained largely unchanged this week, climbing just 1.3% over seven days to settle near $4,430, while major holders accumulated nearly 870,000 tokens worth approximately $4 billion in a single 24-hour period. The accumulation suggests institutional investors are positioning for an upward move despite the cryptocurrency's muted performance, with technical indicators pointing to $4,620 as the critical threshold that could determine whether the token begins a sustained rally or retreats further.

What to Know:

• Large Ethereum holders added 870,000 tokens in 24 hours, increasing their combined holdings from 99.34 million to 100.21 million tokens, representing one of the largest single-day whale inflows in recent weeks.
• Short-term holder activity expanded notably, with the 24-hour cohort growing from 0.34% to 0.87% since October 4, while the one-to-three-month group rose from 11.57% to 12.36% week-over-week, according to Glassnode data.
• Technical analysis shows an ascending triangle pattern with hidden bullish divergence between August 25 and October 9, suggesting weakening selling pressure as the price forms higher lows against a flat resistance line at $4,620.

Accumulation Pattern Emerges During Sideways Trading

The month-on-month performance for Ethereum shows a modest 2.7% increase. On-chain data from Santiment reveals that whale wallets now hold 100.21 million tokens at the current price of roughly $4,440, marking a significant shift in holdings over a brief period.

Such concentration typically indicates that large investors are preparing for directional movement rather than distributing holdings after a price increase. The $4 billion addition represents substantial capital deployment during a period when retail interest appears subdued.

Activity among smaller but more active trading cohorts has risen in parallel.

Glassnode's HODL Waves metric, which tracks coin age distribution across different holder groups, shows expansion in both immediate and medium-term bands.

The growth in short-term holdings during a week of minimal price action generally signals that traders are re-entering positions. This pattern adds liquidity and momentum during what market analysts consider early accumulation phases. The combination of whale inflows and short-term buildup suggests the current price stability may be temporary.

Technical Indicators Point to Breakout Scenario

The token trades between two Fibonacci retracement levels at $4,400 and $4,620. The price action forms an ascending triangle, a technical structure characterized by higher lows against horizontal resistance. Chart patterns of this type often precede breakout movements.

A hidden bullish divergence emerged on the daily chart spanning August 25 through October 9. This occurs when price action creates higher lows while the Relative Strength Index, which measures momentum and identifies overbought or oversold conditions, forms lower lows. The divergence typically appears during corrections within broader uptrends and signals potential continuation of the prevailing direction.

The technical signal indicates diminishing selling pressure.

If Ethereum closes a daily candle decisively above $4,620, analysts project potential targets at $4,870 and $5,130 as the breakout confirms. A failure to hold above this level would negate the short-term bullish scenario.

Conversely, a daily close below $4,400 could trigger a pullback toward $4,240 or $4,070. Both whale investors and short-term traders appear focused on whether the cryptocurrency can break and sustain levels above $4,620 to initiate the next significant upward move.

Understanding the Metrics

On-chain data refers to information recorded directly on the blockchain, including wallet holdings and transaction volumes. Whale wallets typically contain substantial amounts of a cryptocurrency, often exceeding millions of dollars in value. These large holders can influence market direction through their buying and selling activity.

The Relative Strength Index measures price momentum on a scale of zero to 100, with readings above 70 indicating overbought conditions and below 30 suggesting oversold levels.

Hidden bullish divergence occurs when this indicator and price action move in opposite directions during a correction, often signaling that the underlying trend remains intact despite short-term weakness.

Fibonacci retracement levels are horizontal lines that indicate potential support and resistance zones based on mathematical ratios. Traders use these levels to identify where prices might pause or reverse during trending markets.

Closing Thoughts

The convergence of on-chain accumulation and technical chart patterns suggests Ethereum may be preparing for increased volatility. Whether large holders' $4 billion bet proves profitable depends on the cryptocurrency's ability to breach and maintain levels above the $4,620 resistance threshold in coming sessions.