The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has slowed activity across multiple agencies - including the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) - leaving several pending altcoin ETF applications in limbo.
With a limited staff and restricted operations, the agency has postponed rulings on products linked to XRP, Solana, and Litecoin, extending uncertainty across the market.
While the industry waits for official decisions, JPMorgan has released a new assessment of what might happen once approvals eventually arrive. The bank’s analysts now expect that spot Solana ETFs could receive the green light in the near future but see far lower inflows than earlier projections suggested.
In a recent report shared with The Block, JPMorgan’s team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou forecast that Solana ETFs might attract around $1.5 billion in net inflows during their first year – only a fraction of what Bitcoin or Ethereum products achieved. The figure represents roughly one-seventh of Ethereum ETF inflows during a comparable period.
The analysts cited several factors behind their conservative outlook: declining on-chain activity, weaker investor sentiment toward Solana, and reduced participation from active addresses since late 2024. They also pointed to the increasing dominance of memecoin speculation on Solana’s network and rising competition from composite crypto indices such as the S&P Dow Jones Digital Market 50.
Panigirtzoglou’s team did acknowledge that Solana’s inclusion on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), where futures are already listed, strengthens the case for regulatory approval. However, they warned that open interest in CME Solana contracts remains limited, offering no clear signal of strong institutional demand for the asset.
The latest view marks a noticeable shift from earlier estimates by JPMorgan’s Kenneth Worthington, whose team projected between $2.7 billion and $5.2 billion in inflows within six to twelve months of approval. The revised forecast suggests a cooling of expectations as overall market enthusiasm for altcoin ETFs fades amid macro uncertainty and regulatory delays.
For now, the SEC’s partial shutdown has paused the countdown for every pending crypto ETF – and until staffing and operations return to normal, the timeline for Solana, XRP, and Litecoin ETFs remains anyone’s guess.
