In 2017, Stellar (XLM) experienced a spectacular bull run, soaring from just a few cents to a peak of $0.93. The surge delivered massive returns for investors. In 2025, several signals suggest that XLM might be preparing to repeat that performance in the fourth quarter.

What are those signals, and how might they impact the market? Here’s a detailed breakdown.

1. Stellar Network Activity Hits a Yearly High

According to Artemis data, Stellar’s network activity, measured by the Stellar Operations metric, has reached its highest level in the past year.

“Stellar Operations” refers to individual actions performed on the Stellar network, such as fund transfers, decentralized exchange (DEX) trades, or smart contract executions. These actions represent real network usage, independent of price movements.

Stellar Operations. Source: Artemis

The data shows that the Stellar network now processes more than 69 million weekly transactions, which continues to climb. High network activity often strengthens a blockchain’s intrinsic value, attracting more users and investors.

In recent months, Stellar has also expanded its institutional partnerships. For example, Uphold, a major crypto trading platform, recently integrated EURC, a Euro-backed stablecoin issued by Circle, onto the Stellar network. Meanwhile, PayPal USD launched on Stellar last month.

These collaborations likely boosted Stellar’s on-chain activity.

2. XLM’s Correlation With BTC and ETH Reaches an Annual Peak

The correlation between XLM and major crypto assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has risen steadily throughout 2025.

According to CoinMetrics’ Spearman Correlation Index, the XLM-BTC correlation is around 0.75, while the XLM-ETH correlation hovers near 0.7.

Correlation between XLM, ETH, and BTC. Source: CoinMetrics

This strong correlation gives XLM a strategic advantage because it tends to move in the same direction as BTC and ETH. Analysts project that BTC could reach $200,000 and ETH could rise to $7,500 in Q4.

In the current selective altcoin season, this correlation matters more than ever. High alignment with BTC and ETH implies that investors view XLM as sharing similar levels of risk and growth potential with the market’s leading assets.

3. Declining Supply Equality Ratio (SER) Signals Accumulation

The Supply Equality Ratio (SER), a metric that measures how evenly tokens are distributed between small and large wallets, has dropped over the past month, indicating a bullish accumulation trend.

CoinMetrics defines SER as the ratio between the supply held by smaller addresses and that held by the top 1% of addresses. Essentially, it reflects how wealth is distributed across the Stellar network.

A long-term rise in SER suggests broader token distribution among smaller holders. However, a sharp drop in SER often signals that top wallets accumulate ahead of a major price move, a pattern associated with “smart money” behavior.

XLM Supply Equality Ratio (SER). Source: CoinMetrics.

Historically, a significant decline in SER at the end of 2024 preceded a major rally. This pattern implies that Stellar’s top 1% holders might already be positioning for another big move.

4. XLM’s Price Structure Indicates a Potential Breakout

From a technical analysis perspective, several analysts have noticed that XLM’s price structure resembles the bullish setup of 2017.

On the weekly chart, XLM has broken out of a long-term descending wedge, a pattern similar to that of Q4 2017 – when a similar breakout led to a strong rally.

XLM Price Performance 2017 vs 2025. Source: EtherNasyonaL

“The 2017 and 2025 structures on XLM’s weekly chart are strikingly similar. Both show a breakout following a prolonged descending wedge formation. The 2017 breakout led to an aggressive rally. The 2025 setup appears to be forming on the same technical foundation,” an analyst said.

Zooming into recent months, XLM has also broken through a multi-month downtrend line. October’s volatility could be a retest before a potential upward move begins.

While these four catalysts highlight XLM’s internal strengths, external market pressures remain. The broader crypto market may still face challenges from macroeconomic headwinds, including recession concerns and monetary policy shifts in Europe and Japan. These factors could complicate crypto price movements in the coming months.