Two popular indicators used to measure investor demand in the US and Asia — the Coinbase Premium and Kimchi Premium — have spiked sharply recently. This surge occurred while overall market sentiment remained gripped by panic and heavy sell-offs.
What does this mean, and what scenarios could it suggest for the future? Below is a detailed analysis based on historical data and expert commentary.
Two Premium Indices Hit Record High
The Coinbase Premium measures the percentage difference between the Coinbase Pro price (USD pair) and the Binance price (USDT pair). A high premium indicates intense buying pressure from US investors on Coinbase.
According to CryptoQuant data, this indicator increased to 0.18 on October 10, its highest level since March 2024. It has since decreased to 0.09, which is still the highest since June.
Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant.
Analysts noted that despite the market’s “Black Friday”-like panic sell-off, Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium hit a 19-month high during the crash, signaling major institutional accumulation.
“This is a textbook example of institutional ‘dip-buying’ on a massive scale. While the global market was selling, these large entities leveraged the market panic and resulting liquidity to accumulate Bitcoin at lower prices,” analyst CryptoOnchain said.
CryptoOnchain added that the strong accumulation around $110,000 suggests the formation of a solid support zone. These institutions may step in with further buy orders if the price declines.
If Coinbase Premium represents institutional buying pressure in the US, then the Kimchi Premium (also known as the Korea Premium) reflects retail investor sentiment in South Korea.
This indicator measures the price gap between South Korean exchanges and global exchanges. A high premium means Korean retail investors are showing strong buying interest.
CryptoQuant data also showed that this indicator climbed to its highest since February 2025.
Bitcoin Korea Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant.
“The Korea Kimchi premium is exploding. Bitcoin on Bithumb is trading 7.47% higher than on Binance. Insane,” Brian HoonJong Paik, Co-founder and CEO of SmashFi, said.
Although the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shifted abruptly from greed to fear during the second week of October, this wave of fear appears to create opportunities for some investors to build stronger positions.
Will This Time Be Different?
While the bullish arguments seem reasonable, past patterns suggest a potential warning sign for the market.
Zooming out and smoothing both indicators using the 30-day simple moving average (SMA30) reveals a clear pattern.
Historically, when the Coinbase Premium and Korea Premium spiked together, the market tended to decline soon after — as seen in March 2024 and February 2025.
This pattern also shows how long the market might take to recover. In the previous two instances, after both indicators surged, the market took three to six months to rebound.
Some analysts believe the market will remain stable, while others are skeptical, suggesting that new investors might hesitate after witnessing recent volatility.
Regardless, the path to recovery will depend heavily on the next moves by the leaders of major global economies, developments that investors are closely monitoring.
