Bitcoin price prediction is once again flirting with key resistance levels after bouncing off support near $108,000. With BTC trading above $115,000 and up over 3% on the day, bullish momentum is building – but whether it can push toward $200K this cycle depends on several technical and macro factors.
Meanwhile, a new project called Bitcoin Hyper is drawing investor attention as a high-speed alternative built on Bitcoin security.
BTC Defends $108K Support, But Needs Breakout Above $117K
Bitcoin has held firm above $108,000, with the 200-day moving average and on-chain support at $104,772 forming a key technical base. RSI currently sits at 40.6 – mildly oversold – while MACD histograms suggest bearish pressure is easing.
A move above $117K could open the door to a rally toward $124K–$126K, mirroring June’s high. If BTC fails to hold its current range, the downside risk is $103K or even $98.2K – levels tied to the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Swing traders are eyeing $108K as a buy zone, but without volume, BTC may stay stuck in a range.
On-Chain Metrics Highlight $116K as Pivot Point
Bitcoin’s Trader’s Realized Price – a key metric – sits near $116,000. Holding above this line signals re-entry into the “bull phase” of the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. A decisive break above could push BTC into a valuation band between $160K and $200K by year-end.
The indicator tracks how far current prices deviate from the average cost basis of different investor groups. As BTC stays above those averages, the broader market interprets it as a signal of strength, often triggering further buying across whales and institutions.
ETF Flows and Whale Demand Fuel Rally Expectations
Demand has surged since July, with 62,000 BTC added per month, a trend echoing Q4 of 2020, 2021, and 2024 – all of which preceded sharp rallies.
Whale activity is accelerating too, with large-holder balances growing at an annualized pace of 331,000 BTC, well above prior cycles.
Notably, Bitcoin ETFs purchased 213,000 BTC in Q4 2024 – a 71% increase in holdings. These inflows continue to anchor bullish sentiment, with institutional interest showing no signs of slowing. ETF ownership now accounts for 12.2% of all Bitcoin, highlighting a tightening supply dynamic.
Macro Conditions Turn Bitcoin-Friendly
U.S. inflation has cooled below 3%, and the labor market is weakening, giving the Fed room to pivot dovish. ARK’s macro team expects productivity gains to pick up in 2026, supported by deregulation and permanent R&D incentives under the new “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
Bitcoin historically responds positively to looser monetary conditions, and current derivatives data shows low leverage and contained funding rates, unlike the overheated setups seen in past tops. This suggests BTC could rally further without immediate bubble risks.
Fundamentals Remain Strong Despite Pullbacks
Bitcoin’s network health is solid. Mining difficulty rose 21.7% in Q3 and 61% YoY, hitting 611 EH/s. Miner revenue also jumped 6.3% QoQ to $52.4M/day, proving profitability has returned post-halving.
Other key indicators:
Transaction volume grew 27.8% QoQ to 103,600 BTC/day
Active addresses rose 6.1% YoY
Illiquid supply hit 14.3 million BTC, up 4.6%, showing holder conviction
94.5% of all supply remains in profit, meaning few are panic selling
Bitcoin’s “supply density” – coins last moved within 15% of current price – is at its highest since 2020, setting the stage for volatility spikes as sentiment shifts.
Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) Emerges as Fast, Scalable BTC Layer 2
As Bitcoin’s base layer tightens, Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) has entered the spotlight. The project merges BTC’s security with Solana’s speed, using the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) to offer faster transactions, smart contracts, and dApp support – all backed by Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin Hyper presale has already raised over $23.3 million, with tokens priced at just $0.013105.
That figure is expected to rise soon, as the supply allocation nears its cap. The project is audited by Consult and includes features like lightning-fast payments, NFT support, low fees, and decentralized apps.
Bitcoin Hyper is not just riding Bitcoin’s brand – it’s building infrastructure the Bitcoin network doesn’t natively offer. If BTC rallies to $200K, the demand for scalable Layer 2s could explode, and $HYPER may benefit directly from that momentum.
