Ethereum (ETH) slipped below the $4,000 mark this week, reigniting debate over whether the bull market support band remains intact.

The pullback comes amid broader crypto market turbulence, but analysts say the technical structure still suggests a potential recovery if key support levels hold.

Ethereum Pulls Back but Holds Key Structure

Ethereum fell to an intraday low near $3,436 on October 11, extending losses from last week’s sell-off triggered by renewed U.S.–China tariff tensions. The decline briefly broke below the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) at $3,636 and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $3,733, which together form the widely followed bull market support band.

Ethereum retests its bull market support band—a familiar setup that’s often sparked major rallies. Source: @crypto_goos via X

By October 14, ETH rebounded over 20% to trade around $4,200–$4,300, showing signs of stabilization. According to on-chain data from YCharts and TradingView, the recovery coincided with increased institutional inflows and whale accumulation, suggesting buying interest remains strong despite short-term volatility.

Crypto analyst @crypto_goos noted that Ethereum’s current setup mirrors a prior bull market retest seen in early 2025. “$ETH retesting the bull market support band. We’ve seen this before!” the trader wrote on X.

If the pattern repeats, ETH could be preparing for another leg higher—similar to its Q1 rally that propelled prices toward $4,800.

Bull Flag Formation Signals Potential Upside

Technical analysts continue to point to a bull flag pattern on the daily chart, which typically signals consolidation before continuation. Trader Donald Dean (@donaldjdean) highlighted that ETH successfully reclaimed $3,825, a key support zone from July. “The bull flag lower trendline held support, and $3,825 was also reclaimed—both positive signs,” Dean said.

ETH forms a bullish flag as key support levels hold—with an upside target at $4,500. Source: @donaldjdean via X

Resistance levels at $4,500, $4,955, and $5,766 remain critical. A breakout above $4,800 could confirm bullish continuation toward the $6,000–$7,000 range, while a drop below $3,800 might invalidate the structure and open the door to further downside around $3,000–$3,500.

Institutional Flows and Staking ETFs Boost Long-Term Outlook

Ethereum’s fundamentals continue to strengthen following a series of key U.S. regulatory approvals. On September 25, REX-Osprey launched the first ETH staking ETF, followed by Grayscale’s Ethereum ETF staking activation on October 6.

Analysts predict Ethereum could surge to $8,000–$10,000 by Q1 2026 as M2 supply growth, institutional demand, and staking approvals align. Source: @TedPillows via X

Market strategist Ted (@TedPillows) believes Ethereum’s fair value could range between $8,000 and $10,000 by Q1 2026, citing the asset’s correlation with global M2 money supply growth. “ETH will catch up with the M2 supply in Q4. With institutional bidding and staking approval, I think ETH will rally hard,” Ted said.

His projection aligns with historical data showing that U.S. M2 growth of around 4.8% has often preceded major crypto bull runs.

Ethereum Price Outlook: Guarded Optimism

Ethereum’s short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish. The dip below $4,000 tested investor confidence but did not break the broader structure. As long as ETH stays above the bull market support band, the long-term trend remains constructive.

Ethereum (ETH) was trading at around $3,961, down 4.11% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Ethereum Price via Brave New Coin

Institutional adoption through staking ETFs, combined with sustained whale accumulation, could help ETH regain momentum heading into Q4 2025. Analysts maintain that a confirmed breakout above $4,800 would reestablish the uptrend, with medium-term targets between $6,000 and $7,000, and longer-term valuations potentially extending toward $8,000–$10,000 by early 2026.