Bitcoin (BTC) markets are still showing exuberance, but may be at a later stage of the bull market. Recent on-chain data shows a cohort of new whales has taken control of a larger part of the supply.
The Bitcoin (BTC) expansion stage is already mature, and may see further speculation. On-chain data shows a new cohort of whale wallets is in charge, as older holders either moved coins or locked in gains.
BTC holders are still mostly in profit, with 97% of all-time buyers in the green. Despite the support, the recent slide of BTC from its peak, combined with dramatic liquidations, raised questions on the direction of the bull market.
Based on the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, BTC is still trading with a positive sentiment of long-term belief. During the 2025 cycle, the metric has not even touched the euphoria range, as trading is much more strategic, with the presence of institutions and treasury buying.
The exuberance and chaos of previous cycles is not present in 2025, despite the higher valuations and BTC records.
New wallets take over Bitcoin
The recent BTC rally boosted activity in a new wave of whale wallets. New whales were more active in all of 2025, this time preferring to realize gains. While BTC volatility was low, whales still wanted to avoid the drawdowns.
Despite the whale selling, drawdowns during the 2025 cycle rarely exceeded 25% and were mostly driven by derivative trading.
According to analysts, BTC was in a mature speculative stage, supported by inflows of liquidity and new sources of capital inflows.
Over the past few months, wallets with 100 to 1,000 BTC are still the most significant source of accumulation. The current shift to new whales may translate into a holding wave, as some of the wallets mature.
BTC starts recovery after record liquidations
BTC is starting a recovery following last weekend’s peak liquidations. Open interest hovers around $34B, still taking time to rebuild the recent liquidated positions. BTC open interest on Hyperliquid is down to $2.43B, from a recent level of over $4.6B.
In the short term, BTC regained some of its price positions, jumping to $113,257. The Crypto fear and greed index is still pointing to a fearful trading sentiment.
The recent liquidation heatmap shows positions in a tight range, with short traders opening positions as low as $114,000. On the downside, long positions are in the $111,000 range. As the market remains jittery, another crash to that level is still possible.
BTC is currently poised between those liquidatable positions, as whales rebuild their bets on a market direction.
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