Americans bought a record 438,500 EVs in the third quarter of 2025, scrambling to secure the federal tax credits before they disappeared on September 30.
That number is the highest ever for a single quarter, and it made up 11% of all new car sales, beating the previous high of 8.7%, as reported by Cox Automotive. Buyers weren’t waiting around to lose out on thousands of dollars in savings, and dealers across the country saw a wave of last-minute demand.
But with the incentive window now slammed shut, analysts say EV sales could cool off. No credits, no urgency. Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox, said EVs could still reach 25% of US car sales by 2030, though that’s “well short of the 50% once envisioned, but certainly moving out of the ‘niche’ category.” People want them. Price tags don’t.
Tesla loses more ground as GM rises with cheaper EVs
Tesla held its lead in Q3 but barely. After months of shaky results, the company saw a slight sales boost. Still, it’s not the same Tesla dominance as before. Its market share has dropped to 41%, a huge fall from 80% just four years ago.
Meanwhile, rivals are speeding up. General Motors carved out 15% of Q3 EV sales, up from 10% a year ago, thanks to the Chevrolet Equinox, now the third best-selling EV in the country.
Cheaper options are behind this move, as there are now 11 EVs priced below the average US car, and some of them are catching attention fast. GM’s Equinox starts around $35,000, and the newly launched Bolt comes in at $29,000.
That’s a big deal for families trying to escape high gas bills without wrecking their monthly budget. BloombergNEF said nearly half of all EV purchases in the first half of the year were made without a federal tax break. Some people just made it work.
Like Emily Almaer in Boulder, Colorado. She’s paying $250 a month for her Volkswagen ID.4, which she got in August. Her husband, Dion Almaer, said, “You look at some of these [monthly payments], and it’s like ‘Wait, this is like one family meal out.’”
Reportedly, three of their friends also just bought EVs, choosing between Volkswagen, Nissan, and Hyundai. People are finding ways to make the switch, even without help from the government.
Analysts cut forecasts as credits end and affordability worsens
Now comes the hangover. Without tax incentives, projections for EV growth are falling. BloombergNEF now expects EVs to account for just 27% of US car sales by 2030, down sharply from the 48% it predicted last year.
Right now, S&P Global thinks EVs won’t even hit 7% of Q4 sales. And with prices still high, Peter Nagle, associate director at S&P, said: “The affordability issue is going to be exacerbated. It’s really going to be a sink or swim moment.”
Used EVs are seeing more interest, and carmakers are rushing to offer cheaper models. BloombergNEF expects at least nine new EVs under $40,000 to hit the market in the next three years. That won’t fix things overnight, but it’s part of the plan.
Volvo CEO Hakan Samuelsson said his company will take a “huge step” in 2026, with longer-range and lower-cost EVs. He told Bloomberg, “The industry will be electric, there’s no turning back. It may take a bit longer in some regions, but the direction is clear.”
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