Market analyst Benjamin Cowen is cautioning crypto investors not to get ahead of themselves when it comes to betting on an altcoin recovery.

Speaking on The Milk Road Show, Cowen said that while optimism tends to build after major pullbacks, history suggests altseason rarely arrives before the final months of the year.

According to Cowen, altcoins are likely to remain under pressure against Bitcoin (BTC) through October, with another potential dip on the horizon before any meaningful turnaround. “If you’re waiting for alts to move,” he said, “it’s probably not happening until early November – and even then, a final wick down could hit before the real move begins.”

The analyst pointed out that, based on previous market cycles, alt/BTC trading pairs could still fall as low as 0.27 in the coming weeks before recovering. He referenced the 2017 bull run, when altcoins initially collapsed against Bitcoin before rallying sharply within a short window.

“In that cycle, altcoins dropped to about 0.25 in early November,” Cowen explained. “Then they exploded higher in just a couple of months. When altseason comes, it hits fast – you barely have time to react.”

Cowen added that even if an altcoin rally materializes later this year, traders may need to move quickly, as he expects Bitcoin to top out by year’s end, potentially capping altcoin momentum shortly thereafter.

His warning comes as the crypto market continues to recover from its recent crash, with Bitcoin consolidating near the $105,000 level and most altcoins struggling to regain traction. Historical patterns, Cowen emphasized, show that patience – not panic – is often the key to catching the true start of an altcoin surge.