The cryptocurrency market is still reeling after last Friday’s historic $19 billion liquidation wave, one of the largest sell-offs ever recorded, following President Donald Trump’s warning of new tariffs on Chinese imports.
The event not only erased billions in trader positions but also reignited debate over one of Bitcoin’s oldest price theories – the so-called four-year halving cycle.
For more than a decade, the halving cycle has served as the market’s compass, predicting that Bitcoin tends to peak a year after its mining rewards are reduced, before crashing into a bear market. Yet, analysts now argue that this framework no longer explains modern market behavior. Institutional money, derivatives, and ETF flows have introduced dynamics that the old models never accounted for.
According to Messari’s Matthew Nay, many traders are stuck in the past. “Some investors are still anchored to the four-year narrative,” he said, adding that geopolitical uncertainty and the re-emergence of trade tensions have distorted expectations. “They’re defending short positions not because of the cycle – but because the market feels fundamentally different now.”
Others agree that the halving effect has faded as new forces shape Bitcoin’s trajectory. Jonathan Morgan of Stocktwits pointed out that much of the recent selling wasn’t emotional but “mechanical,” driven by automated trading and outdated retail habits. “People still follow the old playbook – buy before the halving, dump if it doesn’t bounce,” he said. Jasper De Maere of Wintermute added that miners now have a negligible influence: “Their rewards used to set the rhythm of the market. Today, that share is minuscule compared to institutional volume.”
Still, not all analysts are ready to bury the halving theory entirely. Nay suggested that Bitcoin could still surprise the market with a fresh all-time high before the year ends, showing that cyclical behavior may evolve rather than vanish. Morgan agreed that Bitcoin’s growth story isn’t linear anymore – “The market has outgrown the mining narrative. ETFs, hedge funds, and global macro forces are the real movers now.”
The massive liquidation event, coupled with geopolitical turmoil, highlights how far the crypto market has drifted from its early roots. What once revolved around miner supply and halving dates is now a highly financialized ecosystem, intertwined with global economic sentiment and Wall Street strategy. The old rhythm is gone – replaced by a more complex, less predictable one.
