In the last week, Bitcoin prices fell from around $115,000 to below $105,000 amid a widespread crypto market correction. According to prominent market analyst Burak Kesmeci, several on-chain developments unfolded during this price decline that are now indicative of the present market and potential price movements.
Bitcoin Metrics Flash Extreme Fear, But Local Bottom May Be Near
In an X post on October 18, Kesmeci reports that Bitcoin’s on-chain landscape has flashed a series of key signals that generally suggest heightened fear and potential accumulation opportunities in the market. The analyst shares recent developments from seven important on-chain metrics during Bitcoin’s fall in the third week of October. Firstly, the Fear and Greed Index plunged into the “extreme fear” zone, reflecting a surge in investor anxiety following Bitcoin’s latest price correction. However, Kesmeci states that this is an event typically observed near market lows rather than peaks, and may not be the ideal time for selling. Meanwhile, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric dropped below 50%, moving sentiment from optimism to worry, as the average profitability among holders is being eroded. In the derivatives market, funding rates turned negative, showing that short positions now dominate futures markets. On the equity side, shares of the largest crypto treasury MicroStrategy (MSTR) declined below $300, reflecting broader weakness in Bitcoin-linked assets. However, the firm also reinforced its long-standing conviction by adding 220 BTC to its holdings, bringing its total to 640,251 BTC, and underscoring continued institutional confidence despite short-term pressure.
In addition, on-chain valuation indicators also highlighted deep oversold conditions. The Advanced NVT Signal fell below -0.5 standard deviations, a level historically associated with an oversold market and early bottom phases. The Active Address Sentiment Indicator (AASI) shows that Bitcoin’s price has dropped disproportionately relative to network activity, a relationship often followed by recovery periods as fundamentals stabilize ahead of sentiment.
When all considered together, these signals suggest that Bitcoin is operating within an extreme fear and oversold environment. However, Kesmeci also hints that the local market bottom may be forming, suggesting that the present market condition presents strong accumulation opportunities.
Bitcoin Price Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $106,970 after a 0.29% decline in the last 24 hours. The monthly chart reflects an 8.32% loss as the premier cryptocurrency struggles to establish its expected “Uptober” bullish form. However, Coincodex analysts are predicting an imminent market rebound, with a projected price target of $124,172 in five days.
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