A well-known crypto analyst is urging investors to rethink the old trade of gold for Bitcoin, calling current market signals a rare buying window.
According to CryptoQuant author Joao Wedson, a set of bottom signals in the BTC/Gold ratio are flashing, and that could mark a turning point in how the two assets move against each other.
Rare Signals Point Toward Bitcoin
Wedson’s chart shows two tags — one blue and one green — that line up with a normalized oscillator he says is at a low. According to him, the blue tag marks a bottom in the BTC/Gold ratio while the green tag appears when both indicators reach lows together.
When that has happened before, it often came at times of steep Bitcoin drops and big swings in market mood. According to Wedson, today is a “historic opportunity” and that investors should now “trade gold for Bitcoin.”
Arthur Hayes, the former BitMEX CEO, has echoed a similar view: “We’re exactly there right now,” he said, calling the setup one of the most compelling in recent years. The message from both analysts is clear: look closely at this moment.
Bitcoin Seen At A Deep Value Zone
Other market watchers find Bitcoin trading two standard deviations below its ideal range. This type of reading has in the past lined up with accumulation phases, not market tops.
Based on CoinMarketCap data, BTC was trading near $107,400 at press time and had risen 0.45% in the previous 24 hours. Year-to-date gains stood at 15%, and Bitcoin had gained nearly 55% over the last year.
Those figures were cited to show that the currency has already moved a lot this year, but that some measures still point to cheaper-than-usual levels.
Wedson specifically urged institutional players who have been buying up gold to rethink allocations. The BTC/Gold ratio has long been used as a gauge of confidence between the two stores of value.
When it hits a bottom, some market cycles have followed with Bitcoin regaining ground quickly and, in some cases, moving toward fresh highs within months. This is the historical pattern his signal is tied to.
Some of the language used by analysts was blunt; the oscillator was described as “basically screaming: time to sell gold and buy Bitcoin,” a phrase that underlines how strong the signal appears to those calling it.
Retail Losses Hit Billions
While the ratio story points to upside, a separate disclosure shows a different risk for ordinary investors. Reports from 10X Research say retail buyers lost around $17 billion after piling into public Bitcoin treasury firms that traded at premiums.
Those companies — including MicroStrategy (now Strategy) and Metaplanet — issued shares and used the cash to buy Bitcoin, but the equity premiums collapsed as Bitcoin’s run slowed.
The report added that investors overpaid by about $20 billion in inflated equity premiums, leaving many with losses while insiders and executives benefited earlier in the move.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
