China confident on growth goals despite economy’s weak performance

China reported its slowest economic growth in a year but insisted it remains on course to meet its annual targets, helped by strong export numbers that have cushioned weak domestic activity.

The country’s economy grew 4.8% in the three months ending in September compared to the same period last year, according to figures released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics.

While this marked the weakest quarterly performance in a year, it still beat what most economists had predicted as reported by Bloomberg. Officials said the 5.2% expansion recorded across the first nine months of the year provided a “solid foundation” for reaching the full-year goal of roughly 5% growth.

Critical week for economic planning

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These figures come at a crucial time for China. Top officials are gathering in Beijing this week for the fourth plenum, a meeting focused on planning economic development priorities for the upcoming five-year period.

Meanwhile, trade friction between China and the United States has intensified once more. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia this week to arrange discussions between both nations’ leaders later this month.

On Sunday, President Donald Trump identified three primary areas of concern regarding China. Rare earth elements, fentanyl, and soybeans.

The better-than-expected growth figures, combined with new government spending programs announced last week, might reduce pressure on officials to roll out more emergency measures soon.

Ding Shuang, who works as chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered, said policymakers might now hold off on a 10-basis-point interest rate cut his team had forecast for this year.

But the Monday report also revealed plenty of trouble spots. Sales at retail stores grew at their slowest rate since last November. Investment in fixed assets dropped for the first time on a year-to-date basis since 2020.

The one bright spot came from factories, where output jumped 6.5% in September, beating every economist’s prediction.

Markets react positively

Chinese stocks climbed after the data came out. The CSI 300 Index rose as much as 1.3% amid a better mood across Asian markets following Trump’s signals that tensions with China might ease. Hong Kong-traded Chinese stocks gained 2.5% by midday.

Record exports have kept China’s economy moving forward despite another trade fight with the United States. Strong global demand for Chinese-made products has helped keep overall growth near government targets.

But problems remain throughout the world’s second-largest economy. Falling prices and tough competition are hurting company profits, while consumer spending stays weak following the collapse of the housing market.

The rare drop in investment showed how pessimistic businesses and consumers feel. Real estate led the decline, but spending on infrastructure and manufacturing also slowed down. Infrastructure investment grew just 1.1% in the first nine months compared to a year earlier, the worst performance for that period since 2020. Manufacturing investment cooled from nearly 10% earlier this year to only 4%.

To address these issues, the Finance Ministry said Friday it would let provinces use 500 billion yuan, or $70 billion, in unused borrowing allowances to strengthen their finances. The money can pay down hidden debts, settle bills owed to companies, and in some cases, fund new investment projects.

Nominal GDP growth, which doesn’t account for price changes, fell to 3.7% in the third quarter from a year ago. This marked the worst reading since late 2022 and showed that prices across the economy dropped for the 10th quarter in a row, the longest such streak in recent memory.

Meanwhile, China’s exports of rare earth magnets fell 6.1% in September from August, ending three months of increases.

The drop happened before Beijing announced a major expansion of its export licensing rules this month. After trade talks broke down earlier this year, Beijing had restricted rare earth exports between April and May before reaching a deal with Washington in June to ease the flow of these critical materials.