The 47th POTUS, Donald Trump, has, in his recent statements, downplayed the immediate risk of conflict over Taiwan during a meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the White House. 

He has reassured reporters that China “doesn’t want” to invade Taiwan and expressed confidence in reaching a “fair trade deal” with Chinese President Xi Jinping at an upcoming meeting on the sidelines of an economic conference in South Korea next week.

However, his comments contrast sharply with a recent Pentagon assessment, which warned that Xi Jinping could attempt to seize Taiwan within the next six years.

Donald Trump won’t barter Taiwan in China trade deal

President Donald Trump has continued to downplay risks of a clash over the issue of Taiwan, even though his top trade negotiator, Jamieson Greer, has accused Beijing of engaging in “economic coercion.”

Trump seems to believe that China has no designs on actually invading Taiwan, but he expects the issue will come up during his planned meeting with Xi when they turn up for the economic conference in South Korea next week.

The topic has become one of the most sensitive issues in U.S.-China relations and has seen Beijing repeatedly cautioning Washington to alter the language it uses when discussing its position on Taiwanese independence.

During his meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, where the two signed a critical minerals agreement aimed at countering China, Trump was asked if U.S. actions in the waters of the Indo-Pacific were sufficient to keep Xi from invading Taiwan.

The POTUS said “China doesn’t want to do that” before quickly moving on to boast about the size and strength of the U.S. military, an attribute he believes will encourage Xi to make a deal and avoid conflict.

“I think we’ll end up with a very strong trade deal,” he said. “Both of us will be happy.”

While Trump is interested in a trade deal with China, he has also been working hard to counter Beijing’s dominance over rare earth metals. The critical minerals agreement with Australia is part of that effort. The deal is expected to reduce reliance on China for rare earths and other resources, indirectly countering Beijing’s influence.

So while he may be courting China for now, the endgame is to gradually eliminate the chokepoints the Asian giant can use as leverage to attack the economy or facilitate favorable deals.

Taiwan’s trust in the US pivotal in relations with China

Taiwan has been an ally of the U.S. for a long time, but it may need to reevaluate its dependence on the country for support and protection from China and its ambition to reclaim it as part of its lands.

Like Wang Liang-yu, head of the Taiwan foreign ministry’s North American Affairs Department, has boasted, Taiwan-U.S. communication is “quite smooth”, and since Trump took office, the U.S. has repeatedly reiterated its support for Taiwan.

However, when one reporter asked about the likelihood of the U.S. adjusting its position on Taiwan independence to encourage a trade deal with China, Trump circled around the question, only admitting vaguely that he assumes it will be one of the things they talk about.

In the meantime, Beijing has ramped up a campaign of military and diplomatic pressure on the democratically governed Taiwan, and it has never renounced the idea of using force to bring Taiwan under its control. So, the fear of conflict persists.

Of course, Taiwan, confident it has the backing of the United States despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties, is seemingly unbothered despite increased military and diplomatic pressure from China, which conducts regular military exercises near the island, and Beijing’s regular denouncement of any shows of support for Taipei from Washington.

The Taiwan government also thinks China has bigger fish to fry at the moment, with Taiwan’s National Security Council head, Joseph Wu, criticizing the country for prioritizing expansionism over addressing its economic and social issues, especially during a key Communist Party meeting.

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