Bitcoin traders are bracing for the release of the September US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on October 24, an event analysts at The Kobeissi Letter call particularly significant because it marks the first Friday CPI release since January 2018 and comes just days before the Federal Reserve’s October 29 meeting.
CPI release to guide market direction
With the US Labor Department suspending other major economic reports amid the government shutdown, this CPI figure will stand as the sole inflation gauge for policymakers.
Wells Fargo economists project a slight uptick in September’s CPI to 3.1% from 2.9% in August, while core inflation is expected to remain stable.
Futures markets tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool currently assign a 99% probability to a Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting, and an 85% chance of another cut in December.
A softer CPI reading would likely reinforce these expectations, potentially weakening the dollar. Conversely, a higher-than-expected CPI could renew speculation about further rate hikes.
Implications for bitcoin price
Kautious Data analysts noted that the CPI’s outsized influence—given the lack of other macro data—creates a setup where:
“thinner macro signals can be a near‑term bullish setup for crypto narratives while adding tail risk for broader markets.”
According to the firm, a softer core CPI reading below 0.3% month-over-month could favor assets like gold and Bitcoin, while a stronger reading may boost the dollar and pressure risk assets.
Analyst: ETF inflows and volatility in focus
Dean Chen, analyst at Bitunix, told CryptoSlate that the market’s reaction will depend on how investors reprice risk after the release.
He explained that a cooler CPI could renew ETF inflows and potentially push Bitcoin toward the $117,000-$120,000 zone, while a hotter report might lead to a test of the $100,000 support level.
Chen added:
“Traders should watch real-time movements in US yields and the dollar following the release: a simultaneous rise in both would pressure Bitcoin, while a retreat could reignite risk appetite. In this environment, volatility remains elevated, and the sustainability of ETF inflows will determine whether Bitcoin can regain momentum post-data.”
Market volatility expected
With fewer macroeconomic data releases this month, all eyes are on the CPI and its impact on both Federal Reserve policy and the sustainability of recent Bitcoin price trends.
Traders are preparing for heightened volatility, with key support and resistance levels likely to be tested in the days ahead.
