Bitcoin remains under pressure, with the flagship cryptocurrency trading around $108,400 after a 4.5% daily decline.
The correction follows renewed geopolitical tension between the United States and China, compounded by a bearish outlook from Standard Chartered, whose analysts believe BTC could temporarily fall below the $100,000 mark before resuming its long-term uptrend.
Analyst Expects Brief Crash Below Six Figures
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, stated in a note to investors that the current market weakness may push Bitcoin under $100,000 in the coming weeks. He attributed this to mounting trade-war fears and recent remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has hinted at further tariffs on Chinese imports.
Kendrick noted that while a deeper correction could briefly shake investor confidence, he expects it to be short-lived. He believes Bitcoin’s fundamental strength and continued institutional inflows through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will eventually drive prices much higher, with a year-end target still standing at $200,000. Even under more conservative scenarios, the analyst projects Bitcoin to reach at least $150,000 before the end of 2025.
Trade Tensions Stir Market Volatility
The latest pressure on Bitcoin stems from escalating trade rhetoric between Washington and Beijing. Trump recently threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 155% if no deal is reached before November, causing jitters across global markets. Earlier this month, the announcement of a 100% tariff sent BTC briefly to $104,000 as traders fled risk assets.
Despite intermittent rebounds, Bitcoin’s momentum has failed to hold. Each rally attempt has been met with quick selling pressure, suggesting that short-term sentiment remains fragile. Analysts say this behavior mirrors traditional market uncertainty whenever global trade disputes intensify, with investors seeking safety in the U.S. dollar and gold.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Indicators
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s price action shows consolidation near the $108,000 zone after recovering slightly from a local low near $106,000. The RSI currently sits around 50, indicating a neutral stance and showing neither clear overbought nor oversold conditions. This positioning implies that the market could swing in either direction depending on the next major catalyst.
Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has been oscillating around the zero line, reflecting reduced momentum. The MACD line remains below the signal line, which reinforces the short-term bearish bias. For bulls, a clear breakout above $112,000 would be the first sign of regained strength, while a close below $106,000 could open the door to a steeper decline toward $100,000 or even slightly below.
If Bitcoin does break the $100,000 psychological threshold, analysts expect heavy buy orders to appear as institutional and retail investors view it as a prime accumulation level. Historically, dips of this magnitude during broader uptrends have often preceded major rallies.
Broader Market Context
The total crypto market capitalization has also slipped in recent sessions, while Ethereum’s price fell below $4,000 for the first time in nearly two weeks. Market liquidity has thinned out, and traders remain cautious ahead of the upcoming APEC Summit, where Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet. Any progress—or renewed conflict—could significantly affect Bitcoin’s near-term direction.
Despite short-term uncertainty, Standard Chartered remains one of the few major banks projecting an aggressive long-term upside for Bitcoin. Kendrick highlighted that sustained ETF inflows and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts could act as catalysts for a new bullish cycle, potentially driving BTC toward his $200,000 target before year-end.
Outlook
For now, Bitcoin’s price sits at a crossroads. While the market may face another wave of volatility due to global trade disputes, the long-term narrative remains bullish. Traders are closely watching the $106,000-$112,000 range as a decisive zone. A confirmed breakout could define whether the next move is a retest of $120,000—or a temporary slide below $100,000 that could set the stage for an even larger rally later in 2025.
Source
