XRP continues to hover around a make-or-break zone, with traders watching closely as the token clings to the $2.28-$2.40 support range.

After a weak month marked by whale selloffs and fading momentum, XRP is now confronting renewed volatility and mixed signals from derivatives data and institutional developments.

Whale and Holder Selling Accelerates

Large XRP investors have been steadily reducing exposure since mid-October. Addresses holding more than 1 billion XRP trimmed their positions from 26.19 billion to 25.10 billion tokens, liquidating over $2.6 billion worth at current prices. Mid-sized wallets holding 10 million-100 million XRP also offloaded about 150 million tokens, worth roughly $360 million.

Long-term holders joined the selling wave, with Glassnode data showing the Hodler Net Position Change falling from – 18.5 million XRP on October 17 to – 59.5 million XRP by October 21 – a 220% rise in outflows in just four days. Such synchronized selling from both whales and long-term investors has intensified pressure on XRP’s key support area.

Technical Picture Shows Fragile Structure

XRP’s chart pattern remains bearish, trading within a descending triangle with a firm base at $2.28. The formation suggests sellers maintain control, and a confirmed daily close below this threshold could trigger a deeper slide toward $2.08 or even $1.77 – a potential 14% to 27% drop.

A hidden bearish divergence has also formed between XRP’s price and its Relative Strength Index (RSI), signaling weakening momentum. The RSI near 40 still avoids oversold territory but reflects limited buying strength. For bulls to regain traction, XRP would need to close above $2.82, breaking its 50-day SMA and potentially opening a path to $3.10.

Derivatives Data Reflects Speculative Activity

Recent data from Coinglass shows that open interest in XRP futures has surged sharply since early 2025. After months of stagnation below $2 billion, open interest jumped above $10 billion in April as XRP approached $3.50.

As of October 22, open interest stands around $3.76 billion, even as prices hover near $2.42. This sustained participation indicates that traders remain highly active despite price weakness – a sign of elevated speculative positioning. The growing correlation between price volatility and derivatives activity suggests that futures traders are heavily influencing short-term moves.

Ripple Expands Institutional Ties

Ripple’s ongoing efforts to expand institutional adoption continue to set it apart from other altcoins. The company’s partnership with Evernorth (via Armada Acquisition Corp II) is establishing the world’s largest public XRP treasury, to be listed on Nasdaq under the ticker “XRPN.”

The initiative, supported by Japan’s SBI Group and GUMI, focuses on institutional liquidity and tokenized settlements across Asia. Meanwhile, Ripple’s EVM Sidechain has reached $105 million in total value locked, underscoring progress in DeFi integration.

Additionally, a resurfaced document shared by the analyst SMQKE confirmed that Ripple sits on the Federal Reserve’s Faster Payments Task Force Steering Committee, reinforcing its long-standing connections to the global payments ecosystem. Ripple also co-chairs the W3C Web Payments Working Group, underscoring its influence on next-generation payment infrastructure.

Yes, Ripple sits on the Federal Reserve's Faster Payments Task Force Steering Committee.✅

Documented.📝👇 https://t.co/fiz3ocUEAS pic.twitter.com/yCEqjh3QqV

— SMQKE (@SMQKEDQG) October 21, 2025

Regulatory Landscape Still Mixed

Ripple’s August 2025 settlement with the U.S. SEC ($125 million) removed a significant legal overhang, yet ETF uncertainty lingers. The SEC has yet to approve any XRP-linked exchange-traded funds, while asset managers like BlackRock continue prioritizing Bitcoin and Ethereum. Analysts view this as a setback for XRP’s institutional narrative.

Prediction data from Polymarket assigns just a 21% probability of XRP reaching $4 before January 2026, although optimism has slightly improved in recent sessions. About 25% of traders expect the token to reach $3.50, while 38% see it closer to $3.20 by year-end 2025.

The broader ETF environment may indirectly benefit XRP, however. ProShares recently filed to launch an ETF tracking the CoinDesk 20 Index – including XRP, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano. If approved, this could grant institutional investors passive exposure to XRP within a regulated framework.

🚨LATEST: NEW: ProShares has officially filed for the "ProShares CoinDesk Crypto 20 ETF" to be listed on the NYSE.

The fund will track the CoinDesk Crypto 20 Index, giving investors exposure to the top 20 digital assets by market cap. pic.twitter.com/WSRZeP0ZXM

— CoinDesk (@CoinDesk) October 21, 2025

Market Overview and Technical Momentum

XRP currently trades around $2.39, below both its 50-day ($2.82) and 200-day ($2.62) moving averages. The token remains under downward pressure, with RSI levels near 40 pointing to a cautious outlook.

Despite weak near-term momentum, open interest data and institutional partnerships suggest ongoing engagement from both speculative and professional traders. The challenge lies in whether buyers can reclaim control before support collapses.

XRP Price Scenarios for Late 2025

• Bullish Scenario:
  If XRP holds above $2.28 and the broader market stabilizes, renewed institutional demand could push prices toward $3.50-$4.20 by Q4 2025. This outcome assumes positive ETF developments, sustained derivatives volume, and Ripple expanding enterprise adoption through Evernorth and Fed-linked initiatives. The $4 target, predicted by a minority of Polymarket traders, would require both macro stability and regulatory clarity.
• Base Scenario:
  In a neutral case, XRP fluctuates between $2.00 and $3.00 throughout 2025. Futures activity remains high, but whale selling and lack of ETF approvals cap upside potential. Ripple’s institutional progress and potential inclusion in index-based ETFs provide stability, while macro headwinds limit speculative rallies.
• Bearish Scenario:
  A confirmed break below $2.28 could trigger accelerated selling toward $1.70-$1.90, particularly if risk appetite fades or further regulatory delays occur. In this case, derivatives traders could amplify volatility through cascading liquidations. Without renewed accumulation from large holders, XRP might struggle to recover before 2026.

Final Outlook

XRP’s technical chart remains fragile, with sentiment still cautious after months of selling. While Ripple’s strong institutional partnerships and involvement in U.S. financial policy circles provide long-term support, the immediate trend remains defined by speculation and weak momentum.

As derivatives trading grows and regulatory progress stalls, XRP sits at a crossroads between renewed institutional legitimacy and ongoing price compression. The next few weeks will likely determine whether the $2.28 support becomes a launchpad for recovery – or the start of another major downturn.