Buckle up, Bitcoin investors.
The cryptocurrency has been in a slump ever since renewed tension between the US and China billowed into capital markets, wiping out $19 billion in leveraged positions across crypto in a single day.
Now, as it trades at around $108,000, crypto’s top asset has an inescapable trip below the six-figure mark, according to Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at UK-based bank Standard Chartered.
“The question now is how far does Bitcoin need to fall before finding a base,” Kendrick said in an October 22 note to investors.
“A dip below $100,000 seems inevitable.”
Kendrick’s dour prediction is especially unwelcome in “Uptober,” a historically bullish month for Bitcoin that has been put on ice in 2025.
Of late, risky assets like Bitcoin have fallen out of favour with investors.
That’s because of renewed tension between the world’s top economic superpowers, pushing traders to seek assets traditionally seen as safe havens.
Enter gold. The precious metal has been on a tear, topping $4,373 earlier this week before pulling back to around $4,000 on Wednesday.
Gold rotation
For Kendrick, we’re seeing a rotation from gold into its so-called digital version.
“Yesterday’s sharp gold selloff coincided with a strong intra-day bounce in Bitcoin,” wrote Kendrick. “This was presumably a sell gold, buy Bitcoin flow.”
Reality check. Although Bitcoin believers have been touting the asset’s similarity to gold, and its place in an investor’s portfolio — especially during times of market distress like the one we’re seeing today — Bitcoin has struggled to live up to its claims.
When markets panic, Bitcoin tends to tumble alongside tech equities rather than rallying with gold. The $19 billion liquidation event proved that point — Bitcoin acted like a leveraged stock and not a safe-haven.
Debasement doubts
Bitcoin’s stumble calls into question its role in the so-called “debasement trade” — a bet against the government’s ability to stay solvent.
“Bitcoin has been in this awkward position where its main value proposition is as a store of value and protection against debasement, but it tends to trade with tech stocks instead of gold,” Carlos Guzman, senior analyst at research firm GSR, previously told DL News.
In this environment, gold has been the clear winner, surging over 50% this year as investors pull away from sovereign debt. Meanwhile, Bitcoin keeps getting caught in the crossfire whenever markets panic, undercutting claims it serves as a reliable inflation hedge or store of value during turmoil.
Still, Kendrick added a silver lining to Bitcoin’s ominous dip: “It may be the last time Bitcoin is EVER below $100,000.”
