Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC reclaims $110,000 despite mixed ETF flows

Bitcoin price recovers slightly on Thursday after failing to overcome the 50-day EMA on Tuesday.
Copper Research highlights that the October setup aligns with BTC’s historical fear cycle pattern, suggesting a potential recovery.
ETF flows remain indecisive, alternating inflows and outflows through the week.

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaims the $110,000 mark at the time of writing on Thursday after facing rejection from a key level earlier this week. While mixed spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) flows highlight indecision among institutions, historical patterns suggest that the current setup could pave the way for a potential recovery in the weeks ahead.

Bitcoin could recover toward $130,000 by mid-December, reports Copper Research

The Copper Research report, released on Wednesday, highlighted that the October setup aligns almost perfectly with BTC’s historical fear cycle pattern, suggesting that the recent low of $102,000 signals potential recovery toward $125,000 to $130,000 by mid-December.

The report analyzed dataset covers over 40 fear events since 2024, each normalized over an 84-day window to capture the full Fear-to-Recovery cycle. The October setup mirrors the historical template almost perfectly: a quick -10% correction, an 11-day consolidation, and a statistical bias toward a 15–30% recovery over the following 8–12 weeks. While short-term sentiment remains cautious, the data strongly indicate that fear still represents a reset, not a reversal.

In an exclusive interview, Fadi Aboualfa, Head of Research at Copper, told FXStreet that “Every time fear takes hold of the market, the data tells a similar story — Bitcoin tends to pull back sharply, then rebound harder.”

Aboualfa continued, “What we’re seeing right now fits that historical rhythm almost perfectly. This latest dip to around $103,000 looks very much like the exhaustion point we’ve seen in past cycles. If that holds, historical data suggests we could be in the early stages of a recovery phase, with prices trending back toward the $125,000 to $130,000 range before year-end.”

Indecisiveness among institutional investors

Institutional flows reflect a mixed sentiment so far this week, as Bitcoin spot ETFs saw alternating inflows and outflows — mild outflows of $40.47 million on Monday and $101.29 million on Wednesday contrast with the $477.19 million inflow on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue data. This highlights the indecisiveness among institutional investors, as fluctuating ETF flows suggest a cautious approach amid prevailing market uncertainty.

Total Bitcoin Spot ETF net inflow daily chart. Source: SoSoValue

Some signs of concern

Glassnode's weekly report highlighted on Wednesday that BTC has corrected below the short-term holders’ cost basis at $113,100. Also below, the 0.85 quantile at $108,600 indicates growing demand exhaustion, as the market struggles to attract new inflows while long-term holders continue to distribute their holdings.

This structural fatigue suggests that Bitcoin’s network may need an extended consolidation phase to restore market confidence. Moreover, if BTC corrects, it could revisit the 0.75 quantile level, currently around $97,500.

BTC cost basis model chart. Source: Glassnode

On the options market, the report explains that BTC has the same cautious structure. Despite record-high open interest, positioning leans defensive; put skew remains elevated, volatility sellers are under pressure, and short-term rallies are met with hedging rather than optimism.

“Together, these signals indicate a market in transition, one where exuberance has waned, structural risk-taking is subdued, and recovery will likely depend on restoring spot demand and mitigating volatility-driven flows,” said Glassnode analyst.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC shows early signs of fading bearish momentum

Bitcoin faced rejection from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $113,423 on Tuesday and declined by 2.68% the next day, retesting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (drawn from the April low of $74,508 to the record high of $126,199) at $106,453. At the time of writing on Thursday, BTC trades slightly above $109,500.

If the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $106,453 holds as support, Bitcoin could extend the recovery toward the 50-day EMA at $113,423. A successful close above this level could extend the rally toward the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level at $115,137.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at 43 points upward on the daily chart, suggesting early signs of fading bearish momentum. For the recovery rally to be sustained, the RSI must move above the neutral level of 50. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines are converging to form a bullish crossover. If successful, this would further support a recovery ahead.