Ethereum is once again under pressure, struggling to find the strength to reclaim the $4,000 level amid growing uncertainty across the crypto market. Investor sentiment has turned increasingly cautious, with mixed opinions emerging among analysts — some warning that a bear market may be taking shape, while others believe this correction could precede a massive rally in the coming weeks.

According to CryptoQuant insights, the latest on-chain data reveals a notable shift in Ethereum’s exchange activity that could shape short-term price dynamics. Despite the recent decline in ETH’s price, the 7-day moving average of Exchange Netflow (Total) has transitioned from heavy outflows to inflows — climbing from approximately -57,000 ETH on October 16th to +7,000 ETH recently.

This shift suggests that more ETH is now moving onto exchanges, potentially signaling rising selling pressure as traders prepare to offload assets amid volatility. Historically, such inflow spikes have often preceded short-term pullbacks, especially when accompanied by negative market sentiment. However, some analysts caution that this could also reflect whale repositioning or liquidity management, not outright distribution.

Ethereum Exchange Inflows Spike as Binance Activity Signals Caution

According to CryptoOnchain’s latest analysis on CryptoQuant, Binance appears to be playing a major role in Ethereum’s recent exchange flow dynamics. Data shows that Binance’s 7-day netflow has shifted dramatically — moving from approximately -31,000 ETH on October 15th to +3,000 ETH in recent days. This single exchange accounts for nearly 50% of the total shift observed across all major trading platforms, underscoring its significant influence on Ethereum’s short-term liquidity landscape.

This sudden and pronounced rise in ETH deposits onto exchanges — particularly during a period of price weakness — is typically seen as a bearish short-term signal. When traders or institutional holders transfer coins from private wallets to exchanges, it often suggests a readiness to sell or reposition in anticipation of further downside. As a result, the increased on-exchange supply could add selling liquidity, making it easier for large sell orders to impact price action more sharply.

However, analysts also caution against interpreting this move too narrowly. While exchange inflows often precede selling pressure, they can also reflect strategic hedging, collateral deposits for derivatives trading, or liquidity management during periods of market stress.

Still, when combined with the broader macro uncertainty and Ethereum’s struggle to stay above key technical levels, this data reinforces the cautious tone prevailing across the market. If inflows persist and Ethereum fails to defend support near $3,800–$3,700, downside risk could intensify. Conversely, a quick reversal back to outflows would signal renewed investor confidence and potentially set the stage for a stronger recovery.

ETH Holding Key Support Amid Uncertainty

Ethereum is currently trading around $3,880, holding slightly above a key short-term support zone near $3,700–$3,750, as shown in the 3-day chart. The recent retracement has brought ETH back toward the 50-day moving average, which now acts as an important line of defense for bulls.

After failing to break and hold above the $4,400 level earlier this month, Ethereum entered a corrective phase that mirrors the broader weakness in the altcoin market. Price structure shows lower highs forming since the local top, indicating fading momentum. However, as long as ETH stays above the 100-day moving average near $3,400, the broader uptrend remains technically intact.

If the current support holds, Ethereum could attempt another recovery toward $4,000–$4,200, where heavy resistance and previous liquidity clusters are located. A confirmed close above this zone would signal renewed strength and potentially mark the end of this correction phase.

On the downside, a decisive breakdown below $3,700 could expose ETH to deeper losses, targeting $3,400 and possibly $3,000, where stronger historical demand lies. For now, Ethereum’s price action remains at a pivotal point — balancing between short-term weakness and the potential for a mid-term recovery.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com