The long-anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, confirmed for later this month in Washington, is poised to become one of the most influential geopolitical events for global markets this quarter.
Analysts suggest that the outcome of the talks could play a decisive role in shaping investor sentiment across both traditional and digital assets, including Bitcoin.
Diplomatic Thaw May Influence Risk Appetite
According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, the two leaders will discuss trade, tariffs, and economic cooperation – marking their first in-person encounter since Trump’s return to office. The announcement comes just two weeks after the U.S. introduced sweeping 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, a policy shift that previously rattled global markets and heightened volatility in the crypto sector.
Leavitt reaffirmed that President Trump “will not tolerate unfair trade practices,” emphasizing the administration’s intent to strengthen domestic manufacturing while pursuing “fair economic competition.” Analysts view the meeting as an opportunity to de-escalate tensions that have weighed heavily on risk assets, particularly those tied to speculative and emerging markets such as cryptocurrencies.
Investors Turn to Prediction Markets
Data from the prediction platform Polymarket shows growing optimism among traders. The probability of a U.S.–China tariff agreement being reached by November 10 has climbed to 80%, up 12% from last week. That surge in confidence reflects broader expectations that the talks could ease trade friction and restore some level of stability to global markets.
Should discussions lead to concrete progress on tariffs or technology cooperation, analysts believe it could restore risk appetite and encourage inflows into alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Conversely, if negotiations collapse or tensions escalate, Bitcoin could once again become a hedge against uncertainty – mirroring its historical behavior during past trade disputes.
Macro Ties Between Crypto and Geopolitics
Standard Chartered’s latest report cautioned that prolonged trade hostilities could temporarily pressure Bitcoin below $100,000, underscoring how macroeconomic developments continue to drive crypto sentiment. The bank noted that periods of geopolitical calm tend to encourage broader participation in digital assets, while escalation often triggers short-term capital flight into safer instruments such as gold and U.S. Treasuries.
The upcoming Trump–Xi summit is also viewed as a potential turning point for global risk positioning. Markets are balancing hopes of diplomatic progress with speculation that the Federal Reserve may soon halt its quantitative tightening cycle – a policy shift that could further influence liquidity flows into Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Setting the Stage for Market Repricing
The meeting’s agenda reportedly includes discussions on trade imbalances, supply-chain security, and technology partnerships – issues closely tied to both economic and digital innovation. A constructive outcome could strengthen investor confidence and accelerate institutional re-entry into crypto markets, while renewed tension could amplify volatility across all asset classes.
With investors already repositioning ahead of the talks, Bitcoin’s next major trend could hinge less on technical signals and more on diplomatic tone. For now, the world’s leading cryptocurrency once again finds itself at the intersection of global politics and financial risk-taking.
