The Federal Reserve has signaled a cautious approach with a hawkish-tilted rate cut, maintaining a data-dependent stance as the projected rate path flattens. The latest dot plot indicates a median policy rate of 3.25 to 3.5% by the next meeting, with expectations for 2026 rates being flatter than previously anticipated. In the cryptocurrency sector, structural risks are emerging as MSCI considers revising index eligibility criteria for digital-asset treasury firms. This review could lead to the exclusion of firms with over 50% crypto exposure, potentially resulting in outflows of up to USD 2.8 billion. Additionally, Japan is tightening its regulatory framework by aligning its Payment Services Act with the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, adding pressure to Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge amid these regulatory and macroeconomic shifts.
Fed's Cautious Rate Path and MSCI Review Pose Risks to Crypto
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