Kalshi's prediction market has demonstrated superior accuracy in forecasting inflation compared to Wall Street over the past 25 months. From February 2023 to mid-2025, Kalshi's average error in predicting Consumer Price Index (CPI) changes was 40% lower than that of general market expectations. This success is attributed to the market's ability to leverage economic incentives and aggregate diverse trader insights, effectively harnessing the "wisdom of the crowd." The findings underscore the potential of market-based prediction tools in providing valuable insights for decision-makers facing uncertainty. Inspired by these results, some analysts are exploring similar methodologies for predicting Bitcoin prices, suggesting broader applications for these predictive models in financial markets.
Kalshi Prediction Market Outperforms Wall Street in Inflation Forecasts
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