The likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January 2026 has increased to 17.7%, according to CME's 'FedWatch' data as of December 28. The probability of no change in rates remains high at 82.3%. Looking further ahead, the chances of no rate movement through March 2026 stand at 46.7%, while a 25-bp cut is at 45.6% and a 50-bp cut at 7.7%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on January 28 and March 18, with market participants closely monitoring these dates. Changes in liquidity and the cryptocurrency markets are particularly sensitive to these potential rate adjustments, as are broader financial conditions influenced by CFT policies.