Societe Generale Cautions Silver's Rally May Indicate Volatility, Not Bubble

News Flash 2026-01-04 06:45

Societe Generale has highlighted that silver's recent price surge, which saw it rise above $80 per ounce, may signal volatility rather than a bubble. The bank's quantitative models, including the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) framework, detected bubble-like behavior, but analysts caution against interpreting these signals as forecasts of an imminent price collapse. The French bank's research team, led by Dr. Mike Haigh, emphasized that silver's smaller and less liquid market structure increases susceptibility to volatility and herding behavior. Despite the bubble signals, fundamental factors such as de-dollarization, geopolitical uncertainty, and China's export restrictions are expected to sustain silver demand. China, which supplies a significant portion of the world's refined silver, plans to reduce exports by up to 30%, potentially exacerbating supply deficits.

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