Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, has indicated he will remain in his current role, effectively withdrawing from consideration for the Federal Reserve Chair position. This development has shifted market expectations, with prediction markets now favoring Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Board member, as the leading candidate with a 60% probability. The likelihood of Harriet Harman becoming the next Fed Chair has decreased to 15%-16%, while current board member Christopher Waller's chances stand at 13%-14%. Despite Warsh's emergence as the front-runner, President Trump's unpredictable decision-making style leaves the final outcome uncertain. Other potential candidates include Waller and BlackRock's Rick Rieder. A judicial investigation into the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation project has added complexity to the selection process, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. Treasury Secretary Bentsen has downplayed these concerns, emphasizing market stability and Senate support for Trump's eventual nominee. The current Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, will conclude his term on May 15, with Trump expected to announce his successor this month.