CME FedWatch Indicates 32.5% Chance of 50 bps Rate Cuts in 2026

News Flash 2026-02-08 15:00

CME FedWatch data reveals a 32.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a cumulative 50 basis points rate cut by the end of 2026. The data also shows a 5.4% chance of no rate cuts throughout the year, while the likelihood of a 25 basis points cut stands at 21.1%. Additionally, there is a 25.9% probability of a 75 basis points cut, 11.7% for a 100 basis points cut, and 3% for a 125 basis points cut. Looking ahead to the Federal Reserve's next meeting in March, the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut is currently at 23.2%, according to the same data source.

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