The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release its annual population adjustment data, delayed due to a 43-day government shutdown. This adjustment, based on the latest Census Bureau data, reveals that the BLS has overestimated population growth since late 2024. The revised January data is expected to decrease the population aged 16 and over by approximately 590,000, the labor force by about 370,000, and employment figures by a similar amount. Economists, including Eric C. Eggerhoff from BNP Paribas, project that U.S. labor force growth in 2025 will be around 900,000, with 2026 growth expected to fall below 500,000. The adjustment will affect only January's household survey data, making month-over-month comparisons of employment, unemployment, and labor force figures non-comparable. However, key ratios like the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate are expected to be minimally impacted, with potential slight decreases, according to Bank of America Securities economist Mishra.
BLS Population Adjustment to Impact January Employment Data
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