Oil prices are rising as markets reassess the navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. With limited alternative routes, any sustained risk in this region could tighten near-term oil supply, pushing prices higher. Under the influence of Iran's hardline leadership, these risks are unlikely to ease quickly. While the U.S. and allies might mitigate short-term risk premiums through measures like escorting tankers or releasing reserves, oil prices are expected to remain elevated. New York crude could potentially retest its 2022 high of approximately $130 per barrel if the main channel risks persist.