Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi has warned that a U.S. recession is inevitable if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to oil tankers. Despite the U.S. producing as much oil and natural gas as it consumes, the ongoing closure threatens economic stability. Zandi highlighted that Moody’s machine learning indicators already showed a 49% chance of recession within 12 months before the Iran conflict, with expectations for this probability to rise above 50% in upcoming data. While some investment banks estimate recession probabilities between 30% and 40%, Adeni Research has increased its market crash probability from 20% to 35%. Despite these concerns, the S&P 500 rose 1% on Monday, closing at 6,699.38, indicating that Wall Street has not yet factored in a recession.