Traders are overwhelmingly predicting that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at its upcoming April 29, 2026, meeting. Despite President Trump's calls for rate cuts, the CME Fedwatch tool indicates a 92.8% probability that the Fed will maintain its benchmark rate between 3.50% and 3.75%. The likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike is just 7.2%, with virtually no expectation of a rate cut. The March FOMC decision to hold rates steady has reinforced market confidence in a continued pause, with prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket showing similar expectations. Kalshi contracts suggest a 94% chance of no change, while Polymarket odds are as high as 96%. Traders are preparing for a prolonged holding pattern, with minimal anticipation of rate cuts throughout 2026.
Markets Expect Fed to Maintain Rates in April 2026 Meeting
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