The CME Bitcoin futures market has seen a significant decline, with average daily open interest for the March 2026 contract dropping below $8 billion, reaching approximately $7.2 billion in early April. This marks the lowest level since February 2024 and the fifth consecutive month of decline. March's trading volume also fell to $163 billion, nearly half of its January 2025 peak. The downturn is attributed to the unwinding of basis trades, where institutions previously profited by buying spot ETFs and shorting CME futures. As Bitcoin's price fell from $120,000 to below $70,000, the annualized basis yield narrowed to about 5%, close to the risk-free rate of 4.5%. This reduced arbitrage opportunity has led leveraged capital to exit the market.
CME Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Hits 14-Month Low Amid Basis Trade Unwinding
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