The likelihood of Israel launching an attack on Yemen before April 30 has decreased to 14%, according to Polymarket data, marking a 32% drop in the past 24 hours. This shift coincides with U.S.-led diplomatic efforts, as Secretary of State Rubio prepares to host talks between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington on April 14. The discussions aim to address ongoing conflicts, focusing on a potential ceasefire and the disarmament of Hezbollah. Amid these diplomatic developments, President Trump has reportedly pressured Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to de-escalate tensions, leading to a U.S. request for Israel to suspend certain military operations. As a result, market expectations of Israel opening a new front in Yemen have significantly diminished.
Probability of Israeli Strike on Yemen Drops to 14% on Polymarket
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