Market Unfazed by Potential Long-Term Hormuz Closure, Analyst Says

News Flash 2026-04-17 15:17

Ryoji Musha, President of Japan's Musha Research, highlighted a disconnect between media pessimism and market behavior regarding the Iran conflict's impact on oil prices. Despite the conflict's onset on February 28, the S&P 500 has rebounded to near-record levels, and six-month crude oil futures have dropped to around $70, indicating the market does not foresee a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a third oil crisis. Musha emphasized that the global economy's reduced reliance on crude oil, compared to the 1970s, mitigates the potential impact of such disruptions. Japan's oil dependency has decreased significantly, with oil's share in its energy mix falling from 76% during the first oil crisis to 35% in 2024. Additionally, alternative oil routes from Saudi Arabia and the UAE lessen the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains crucial for Iran's trade as well.

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