Markets reacted sharply to Trump's warning of potential military action against Iran if the current ceasefire agreement expires on April 21, 2026. The probability of extending the ceasefire has dropped significantly, with predictive markets showing a decrease from 86% to 60% in just 24 hours. This uncertainty led to a 21.5-point market drop as traders brace for possible conflict. The trading volume in the ceasefire extension market reached $82,767, while the ceasefire end market saw a daily average of $7,248, indicating high volatility. "Veto" stocks, betting against an extension, are trading at 36 cents per share, promising a $1 payout if no agreement is reached. With three days left, any diplomatic breakthrough could alter the market landscape, as U.S. envoys continue negotiations in Islamabad.
Trump's Iran Ceasefire Ultimatum Shakes Markets, Raises Conflict Fears
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