The probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal operations by May 31 has climbed to 68%, according to Odaily Seer monitoring of Polymarket data. This marks a 9% increase in the past 24 hours. The event contract stipulates that if the IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals through the Strait equal to or exceeding 60 by the deadline, the market will resolve as "Yes." In related developments, U.S. Vice President Vance is scheduled to visit Pakistan for discussions concerning Iran. President Trump, in a recent interview, expressed optimism about potential negotiations with Iran, asserting that Iran "will negotiate" and warning of severe consequences if they do not. Trump emphasized the importance of reaching a "fair agreement" and reiterated that Iran will not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.
Polymarket Odds of Hormuz Strait Normalization by May 31 Increase to 68%
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