Study Reveals 3% of Polymarket Accounts Drive Price Discovery, Capture 30% of Profits

News Flash 2026-04-27 07:56

A study by researchers from London Business School and Yale University has found that a small fraction of Polymarket accounts are responsible for the majority of price discovery and profits on the platform. Analyzing data from 2023 to 2025, the study revealed that approximately 3% of accounts, termed "expert winners," consistently predicted short-term price movements and outcomes, capturing over 30% of all profits. These accounts, along with market makers, comprised less than 3.5% of all accounts. The research, which examined 1.72 million accounts and $13.76 billion in trading volume, also highlighted that 67% of accounts were classified as "losers," incurring the platform's total losses. Additionally, the study flagged 1,950 accounts for suspected insider trading, noting their significant impact on price movements despite limited overall accuracy. A case study within the paper detailed three accounts that profited over $630,000 by betting on political events, aligning with a recent CFTC insider trading lawsuit against U.S. Army Sergeant Major Gannon Ken Van Dyke.

Share to:

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Curated Series

SuperEx Popular Science Articles Column

SuperEx Popular Science Articles Column

This collection features informative articles about SuperEx, aiming to simplify complex cryptocurrency concepts for a wider audience. It covers the basics of trading, blockchain technology, and the features of the SuperEx platform. Through easy-to-understand content, it helps users navigate the world of digital assets with confidence and clarity.

Unstaked related news and market dynamics research

Unstaked related news and market dynamics research

Unstaked (UNSD) is a blockchain platform integrating AI agents for automated community engagement and social media interactions. Its native token supports governance, staking, and ecosystem features. This special feature explores Unstaked’s market updates, token dynamics, and platform development.

XRP News and Research

XRP News and Research

This series focuses on XRP, covering the latest news, market dynamics, and in-depth research. Featured analysis includes price trends, regulatory developments, and ecosystem growth, providing a clear overview of XRP's position and potential in the cryptocurrency market.

How do beginners trade options?How does option trading work?

How do beginners trade options?How does option trading work?

This special feature introduces the fundamentals of options trading for beginners, explaining how options work, their main types, and the mechanics behind trading them. It also explores key strategies, potential risks, and practical tips, helping readers build a clear foundation to approach the options market with confidence.

What are the risks of investing in cryptocurrency?

What are the risks of investing in cryptocurrency?

This special feature covers the risks of investing in cryptocurrency, explaining common challenges such as market volatility, security vulnerabilities, regulatory uncertainties, and potential scams. It also provides analysis of risk management strategies and mitigation techniques, helping readers gain a clear understanding of how to navigate the crypto market safely.