Fed Rate Hold Probability at 95% for June, 87.9% for July

2026-05-01 06:16

The CME's "FedWatch" tool indicates a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates through June, with a 5% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. By July, the likelihood of rates remaining steady decreases to 87.9%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point cut rises to 11.7%, and a 50-basis-point cut stands at 0.4%.

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