Kalshi, a prediction market platform, has not shown a significant advantage over traditional economists in forecasting U.S. non-farm payroll data, according to Bloomberg's analysis. Over the past 33 months, both Kalshi traders and Bloomberg survey economists have had average forecast errors exceeding 60,000 jobs, with no statistically significant difference in accuracy. In April 2026, Kalshi's forecast error surpassed 90,000 jobs when the U.S. non-farm payroll added 178,000 jobs. Some Wall Street economists criticize prediction markets as akin to "new-style gambling," offering limited analytical value for labor market insights.