The United States and Iran are currently focusing on achieving a memorandum of understanding rather than a full peace agreement, reflecting ongoing differences between the two nations. This approach suggests a strategic shift by the U.S. to tackle less contentious issues first, leaving more challenging topics for future discussions. On the prediction market Polymarket, the likelihood of a permanent peace agreement being reached by May 15 is estimated at 34%, increasing to 47% by May 31, and 59% by June 30. These figures highlight the uncertainty and gradual progress in the diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran.