MVRV Undervaluation Signal Strengthens Amid Rising Realized Price

News Flash 2026-06-01 11:33

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is sharpening as an undervaluation signal, coinciding with an increase in Realized Price (RP). As RP rises, the price drawdown required for it to fall below RP decreases, enhancing MVRV's sensitivity when it drops below 1. This dynamic is influenced by the behavior of different holder groups. Short-term holders (STH) have minimal impact on RP due to their recent cost basis, while strong long-term holders (SLTH) with a cost basis below bear-market lows can only push RP higher. Weak long-term holders (WLTH), who bought near market peaks and are deeply underwater, are the only group capable of pulling RP down when they capitulate. Historically, RP bottoms have occurred after price bottoms, as WLTH capitulation can extend over months, continuing to lower RP even after price recovery begins. This makes MVRV<1 a more sensitive undervaluation indicator, though it remains premature to declare a market bottom.

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This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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