In his weekly column, investor and entrepreneur Svit Svitlo provides his overview and interpretation of the last week's significant macroeconomic events, and their impact on crypto markets in the near term.

SVET Markets Weekly Update – September 1–5, 2025

On Week 36, the Nasdaq is up 1.2%, the Dow 0.2% and the S&P 0.7%. The crypto market went side-ways most of the week.

Monday
On Monday, Americas markets were closed for a holiday. European markets edged higher to start September, with the STOXX 600 and Eurozone STOXX both posting modest gains. Defense stocks led the advance after the EU announced plans for potential military deployments to Ukraine, boosting shares of companies like Rheinmetall and BAE Systems. Positive news on Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drug also lifted sentiment. Banks were mostly higher amid ongoing volatility in bond markets ahead of a key French budget vote. The Crypto market was down.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, Wall Street began September with significant downfalls as stocks and bonds fell. Uncertainty over trade, interest rates, and economic data drove the decline. The S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow all dropped sharply. Rising Treasury yields near multi-year highs created additional headwinds. Sentiment was further dampened by a court ruling against Trump’s tariffs, though they remain for now. Investors are focused on the upcoming jobs report, which could influence the Fed’s anticipated rate cut. manufacturing data showed continued contraction, and corporate news saw stocks like Nvidia and Kraft Heinz fall. The crypto market was is in the red.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, equities were mixed. Tech strength, led by a jump in Alphabet after a favorable antitrust ruling, pushed the Nasdaq and the S&P up. This offset a slight Dow decline. Weak economic data, including falling job openings and factory orders, fueled a bond rally as traders nearly priced in a September Fed rate cut. Elsewhere, Macy’s shares surged on an earnings beat. Crypto market was up, slightly.

Thursday

On Thursday, equities advanced as new economic data reinforced expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts this year. The major indices rose, with the S&P and Dow nearing record highs. A weak private jobs report and rising unemployment claims signaled a slowing labor market. While the services sector activity hit a six-month high, mixed data created ambiguity. Consumer discretionary stocks led gains, with Amazon and Meta rising, while materials and tech sectors declined. Salesforce plunged on a disappointing outlook. Crypto market is generally undecided showing slight red.

Friday

On Friday, equities were down as weak August jobs data heightened concerns about an economic slowdown. The economy added only 22K jobs, far below forecasts, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. This solidified expectations for Fed rate cuts, with traders betting on a potential 50 bps reduction. Economically sensitive sectors like banks and energy led the decline. However, real estate rose on rate-cut hopes. Broadcom surged on strong AI revenue forecasts, while chip stocks like Nvidia and AMD fell on tariff warnings. Crypto market went side-way.

On Week 37, key economic data will shape the global interest rate outlook. Highlights include inflation figures and revisions to jobs data, alongside the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. The ECB is expected to hold rates and update its forecasts, while Germany, France, and the UK release industrial production data. China may announce new economic policies and release inflation figures, as will India.

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SVET Markets Weekly Update  – August 4th–8th, 2025

On Week 32, the S&P 500 rose 2.3%, the Dow 1.2%, and the Nasdaq surged 3.7%. Crypto turned to the green side as  the Trump administration pushed for pro-crypto regulations.

Monday

On Monday, stocks rallied, ending a four-day slump, as weak jobs data boosted expectations of a September Fed rate cut. Palantir rose 4.2% ahead of earnings. Trump dismissed the head of the BLS Statistics and plans to appoint replacements for the BLS and an outgoing Fed official. Despite new tariffs (10%-41%), Switzerland and the EU showed willingness to negotiate. Strong earnings (82% of S&P 500 firms beating estimates) supported sentiment, though Berkshire Hathaway dropped 3% post-results. Crypto market is in the  green, as traders took profits by closing shorts.

Comment: The Dawn Of Idiocracy: Politicizing Data

The news of a U.S. President reportedly firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) over unfavorable data is deeply troubling. This action, if true, echoes a dangerous authoritarian tendency seen in countries far removed from the democratic values and achievements we hold dear.

Independent statistical agencies like the BLS are the bedrock of informed decision-making in a free society. Their credibility rests on their ability to produce objective, unbiased data, free from political interference. When the integrity of such institutions is challenged, or their leadership is removed for not delivering “preferred” numbers, it doesn’t just question a single data point; it fundamentally erodes public trust in all official statistics.

This creates a climate of profound uncertainty, where the reliability of future economic reports becomes a matter of speculation rather than fact. Such actions undermine the very foundations of economic analysis, business planning, and public discourse, leading to a system where truth is dictated, not discovered. The long-term consequences of such politicization are far more damaging than any single economic indicator.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, equities retreated as weak economic data, trade tensions, and mixed earnings dampened sentiment. Stagflation worries resurfaced after a stagnant ISM Services reading, while Trump’s proposed tariffs, up to 250% on pharma imports, rattled markets. Tech and utilities lagged, while materials outperformed. Palantir surged on raised guidance, and Pfizer rose on strong results, but Vertex plummeted after halting a key drug trial. Crypto markets continued to correct.

World’s Markets:

• Eurozone producer price inflation rose to 0.6% year-over-year in June 2025, up from 0.3% in May and slightly above forecasts of 0.5%. Prices increased for durable (1.5%) and non-durable (2.0%) consumer goods, while energy costs fell more slowly (-0.1%). Capital goods inflation held at 1.7%, but intermediate goods prices dropped 0.1% — the first decline since November 2024. Monthly, producer prices grew 0.8%, ending three months of sharp falls.
• France’s industrial production jumped 3.8% monthly in June strongest growth since July 2020 — rebounding from May’s 0.7% decline and beating forecasts of 0.8%. Manufacturing rose 3.5%, led by transport equipment (up 16.6%, driven by aviation/aerospace). Mining, energy, and utilities also grew 5%. Yearly output dipped 0.4%, while Q2 saw a 0.1% quarterly decline.

Details

• The ISM Services PMI dropped unexpectedly to 50.1 in July 2025 from 50.8 in June, missing forecasts of 51.5 and signaling near-stagnation. Business activity, new orders, and inventories slowed, while price pressures hit a near three-year high (69.9), with tariffs frequently cited as a concern. Employment shrank further (46.4), and backlogs declined (44.3). Both exports (47.9) and imports (45.9) fell into contraction, suggesting tariff tensions are disrupting trade. 1Y trend: “Down” (ISM)
• Household debt hit a record $18.39 trillion in Q2 2025, rising $185 billion from Q1. Mortgage balances grew $131 billion to $12.94 trillion, while credit card debt rose $27 billion to $1.21 trillion. Auto loans increased $13 billion to $1.66 trillion, and student debt edged up $7 billion to $1.64 trillion. Delinquency rates held at 4.4%, with mortgages showing slight increases but remaining historically strong.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, stocks rallied as investors digested earnings, corporate news, and trade policy shifts. Amazon surged on reports of a $100B domestic manufacturing pledge. McDonald’s rose, but AMD dropped on China uncertainty, and Disney fell after a revenue miss. Trump hiked India tariffs to 50% over Russian oil trade. Eurozone retail sales rose 3.1% YoY in June, the fastest pace since September 2024. Crypto market is in slight green trying to recover after a sharp technical correction.

Details

• The dollar index dropped to 98.4, marking a fourth daily decline as markets anticipated Fed leadership changes. Trump plans to nominate a new Fed governor by week’s end and has shortlisted four candidates to replace Powell. Soft economic data — including weak jobs figures and stagnant ISM services — boosted September rate-cut odds to 90%, pressuring the dollar. 1Y trend: “Down”

World Markets

• The Indian rupee fell past 87.7/USD, nearing record lows after the U.S. doubled tariffs to 50% on Indian goods over Russian oil trade. Despite India’s defense of its energy purchases, the move threatens FX inflows. Meanwhile, India’s inflation dropped to 2.1%, which is a six-year low, below RBI’s target band, keeping rate-cut expectations alive despite the central bank’s recent pause. 1Y trend: “UP”

Thursday

On Thursday, equities dipped as early gains faded due to renewed trade tensions under Trump. The Nasdaq rose initially lifted by semiconductor stocks after Trump imposed a 100% tariff on foreign chips, but broader trade worries soon dampened sentiment. Investors also considered reports that Trump might nominate Fed Governor Christopher Waller as Fed chair, raising September rate-cut hopes. Eli Lilly plunged after a failed drug trial, and Intel dropped following Trump’s call for its CEO’s resignation — both dragging markets lower. Apple rose after announcing a $100B investment plan. Crypto market surged after Trump signed an executive order paving the way for the inclusion of cryptocurrency assets in the $12.5T retirement market.

Friday

On Friday, stocks advanced, extending weekly gains amid strong earnings and Fed rate-cut optimism. The Nasdaq neared a record. Expedia rose on an upbeat outlook. Tesla gained despite restructuring, but Intel dipped. Political Fed speculation grew as Trump nominated Stephen Miran and eyed Christopher Waller as a potential Powell successor. Markets now price a 90% chance of a September rate cut, with two expected by year-end. Gold rose on unexpected levies. Crypto market continued to go up as ETH neared ATH.

World’s Markets:

• Gold held near $3,400/oz, hovering near two-week highs, while December futures surged to a record $3,534 after new tariffs. The Financial Times reported that US Customs unexpectedly imposed levies on 1-kilo and 100-oz bars, contradicting industry expectations of exemptions. This could significantly impact Switzerland — the world’s top gold refiner — as gold is one of its key exports. Spot gold gained 1% this week, supported by trade tensions and growing Fed rate-cut expectations.
• In July, the FAO Food Price Index rose 1.6% to 130.1 points, the highest since February 2023, driven by higher meat and vegetable oil prices, despite declines in cereals, dairy, and sugar. Compared to July 2024, prices were up 7.6% but still 18.8% below the March 2022 peak. Meat prices hit a record high (+1.2%), while vegetable oils surged 7.1%. Cereals fell to 2020 lows (-0.8%), and dairy dipped slightly (-0.1%).

On Week 33, markets will watch China trade talks ahead of an August 12 tariff deadline, along with a Trump-Putin meeting on Ukraine. Key US data includes CPI, retail sales, and consumer sentiment. Global focus: China’s output, Eurozone GDP, Japan’s GDP, and the RBA decision.

Comment: What’s Up With The World?

The global economy is slowing, entering into the stagflation, weighed down by a generation’s grip on power that prioritizes resource accumulation and geopolitical games over human well-being. The old guard offers no future vision beyond maintaining the status quo, holding onto a world they own while the rest of us are left with empty promises.

Meanwhile, food prices and other essential costs continue to climb, a direct consequence of self-serving tariff policies that fuel inflation and stifle local industries. The world functions on inertia and a population glued to their desperately low-paid-if-any jobs, are distracted by cheap entertainments, willfully blind to its own interests. This is not a world governed by vision, but by the fear of violence.

This can’t last. It’s time for the old to step aside and let us build a decentralized future. We are not a monolithic block; just as nature thrives in diverse climates and habitats, we need our own unique economic ecosystems. National states are a relic that cannot satisfy this fundamental human requirement.

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SVET Markets Weekly Update  – July 28 — August 1, 2025

On Week 31, all three major indexes closed the week lower. Crypto market entered into the correction mode.

Monday

On Monday, equities were mostly flat as investors assessed a new EU trade deal and prepared for a week packed with earnings and economic data. The S&P held near record highs, the Nasdaq 100 rose to a new peak, while the Dow dipped. Trump announced a 15% tariff deal with the EU, lower than the initially proposed 30%, amid optimism about a prolonged China trade pause. Despite easing tensions, caution lingered over tariffs’ economic impact. Energy stocks led gains on rising Exxon and Chevron, while materials lagged. Focus now turns to earnings from Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon as well as on the Fed’s policy meeting for potential September rate-cut signals. ETH corrected while BTC side-tracked.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, stocks declined as investors weighed mixed earnings and awaited the Fed’s policy decision. The S&P dropped after touching a record high intraday, while the Nasdaq and the Dow fell. UnitedHealth, Boeing, and Merck led losses, with UPS and Whirlpool plunging over 10% on weak outlooks. Data showed softer job openings but stronger consumer confidence. China trade talks ended without agreement, though expectations for a tariff truce extension remained. While the Fed is likely to hold rates steady Wednesday, markets await clues on future policy amid cooling inflation signals. Crypto market turned red.

Details

• The goods trade deficit shrank sharply to $86B in June 2025 (-$10.4B from May), well below forecasts of $98.4B, nearing April’s 20-month low. The decline followed March’s record $162B gap as tariff fears eased. Imports plunged 4.2% to $264B (lowest since March 2024), led by consumer goods (-12.4%) and industrial supplies (-5.5%). Exports slipped 0.6% to $178.2B, with capital goods (+4.7%) and food (+4%) gains partly offsetting industrial supply drops.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, PCE Prices rose 2.1% in Q2 – the slowest pace since Q3 2024 – after a 3.7% Q1 gain, missing forecasts of 2.9%. Stocks mostly fell as the Fed held rates steady, with mixed earnings reactions. Powell cautioned that Trump’s tariffs’ inflation effects remain unclear, cooling rate-cut hopes. The decision saw rare dissent from Bowman and Waller, who backed a 25bps cut. Humana, Kraft Heinz, and Visa gained on strong results; Starbucks fell despite solid revenue. Focus shifted to Meta and Microsoft’s after-hours reports. Trade tensions flared as Trump imposed new tariffs: 25% on Indian goods and 50% on Brazilian imports. The crypto market was mostly in the red, reinforcing correctional expectations among traders.

Details

• The Fed kept rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting, as anticipated, though two officials voted for a cut — marking the first dual dissent since 1993. Policymakers noted that while net exports remain volatile, recent data suggests slower economic growth in H1, softening their prior “solid pace” assessment. They acknowledged low unemployment but persistently high inflation, with ongoing economic uncertainty. Future rate decisions will hinge on incoming data, economic trends, and risk balance. The Fed adopted a cautious stance amid worries that trade tensions could hinder progress toward its 2% inflation target.
• Private businesses added 104K jobs in July, the strongest growth since March and surpassing forecasts of 75K. This rebound followed a revised loss of 23K jobs in June. The services sector drove hiring (+74K), led by leisure/hospitality (+46K) and financial activities (+28K), while education/health lost 38K jobs. The goods-producing sector added 31K jobs, with gains in construction (+15K) and manufacturing (+7K). Wage growth held steady, with job-stayers seeing 4.4% annual pay increases and job-changers 7.0%, unchanged for the fourth straight month.

Comment: A Political Game of Chicken

The economic policy debate has clearly shifted. Tariffs, ostensibly a tool for economic leverage, have yielded little demonstrable positive effect, yet they remain central to our trade posture. This isn’t about optimizing growth; it’s a political chess match.

Consequently, economic commentary now resembles a bizarre betting pool on when Powell will “bend” to political pressure and cut interest rates. The old rules where monetary policy hinged on mathematical models and established economic logic seems increasingly irrelevant. Instead, we’re operating under a new, stark principle: ‘What’s good for Trump is good for America.’ This conflation of political ambition with national economic health risks undermining the Fed’s independence and distorting market expectations based on anything but sound financial fundamentals.

Thursday

On Thursday, the three major indices declined despite gains in Microsoft and Meta, as trade worries and economic concerns overshadowed the market. Trump’s extended tariffs on Mexican imports and looming trade deadlines dampened sentiment. The core PCE inflation rose 0.3% in June and 2.8% YoY, casting doubt on a September Fed rate cut. Meta surged on strong earnings as well as announced AI spendings, and Microsoft climbed, hitting a $4 trillion market cap. Investors now await Apple and Amazon earnings, along with Friday’s jobs report, for economic insights. Crypto market continued to waiver staging for a correction after a month-long bull run.

Friday

On Friday, major stock indexes tumbled in their worst declines since April, after a disappointing jobs report and new tariffs sparked investor concerns. July payrolls rose just 73K, well below forecasts, with prior months revised downward, signaling labor market softening. Treasury yields slid as Fed rate cut odds jumped above 80%. Sentiment soured further after new tariffs (10%-41%) hit imports from Canada, India, and Taiwan. Amazon plunged on weak cloud forecasts, dragging tech down, while Apple fell despite strong earnings. The crypto market plunged starting a long awaited correction.

Details

• Eurozone core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, held steady at 2.3% in July 2025, matching the previous two months and slightly above the 2.2% forecast, according to early estimates.
• The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% in July 2025 from 4.1%, meeting forecasts. Joblessness rose by 221K to 7.236 million, while employment dropped by 260K. Labor force participation fell to 62.2%, a low since late 2022. U-6 underemployment rate, covering discouraged and part-time workers, increased to 7.9% in July from 7.7%. Historically, this rate has averaged 10.05% since 1994, peaking at 23% in April 2020 and hitting a record low of 6.5% in December 2022.

On Week 32, markets will watch Trump’s trade war after new tariffs were announced. Earnings reports from companies like Disney, AMD, and McDonald’s will be in focus. Key U.S. data includes ISM Services PMI, trade balance, and Q2 productivity. The BoE, RBI, and Mexico’s central bank will decide on monetary policy. Global highlights include China’s trade and inflation, Eurozone retail sales, Germany’s industrial data, and GDP updates from Indonesia and the Philippines.

Comment: Manufacturing Reality Check

President Trump’s economic policies have been presented as a boost for American manufacturing, but a look at the latest data tells a different story. The July 2025 ISM Manufacturing PMI has just been released, and it’s a sobering reality check.

The headline number is clear: the PMI fell to 48 in July from 49 in June, marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction. This is the weakest performance we’ve seen since last October, and it’s well below the expected increase to 49.5.

While there were some minor bright spots as production accelerated, and the declines in new orders and backlogs moderated, the overall picture is one of a sector struggling under a series of self-inflicted wounds.

The most damning data points are in employment and supply chains. As Susan Spence, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, noted, “The Employment Index dropped further into contraction as panelists indicated that managing head count is still the norm at their companies, as opposed to hiring.” The employment index fell to 43.4, a stark indication that manufacturers are cutting jobs, not creating them.

The data points to a manufacturing sector that is not thriving. Instead, it is contracting at a faster rate, with job cuts and supply chain disruptions being the largest contributors to the PMI’s decline. Despite promises of a manufacturing renaissance, the numbers simply don’t support the claim.

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SVET Markets Weekly Update (July 21–25, 2025)

On Week 30, the Dow rose 1.3%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 gained 1.2% and 1.6%, respectively. Crypto market showed the signs of an upcoming short-term correction.

Monday

On Monday, the S&P and Nasdaq reached new record highs, fueled by strong tech stocks, though gains eased later. The Dow lagged, ending slightly down. Alphabet climbed before its earnings, while Amazon, Netflix, and Meta also rose. Over 85% of reported S&P firms have beaten expectations, with Big Tech driving expected 6–7% quarterly earnings growth. Investors now await Tuesday’s earnings from Philip Morris, Coca-Cola, and Lockheed Martin, along with Fed Chair Powell’s remarks in Washington. ETH and the rest of crypto market continued to rally.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, equities retreated from Monday’s peaks as investors assessed corporate earnings and trade updates. The S&P 500 was flat, the Nasdaq dipped as the Dow gained, with tech and chip stocks struggling ahead of Alphabet and Tesla’s earnings. Nvidia and Broadcom fell, while Lockheed Martin and Philip Morris plunged on weak results. GM slid after warning of tariff-related profit losses. Trump announced a tentative trade deal with the Philippines, though Manila hasn’t confirmed. Bessent suggested the delay with China tariffs, with talks planned in Stockholm next week. Crypto markets continued to rise.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, stocks rose sharply amid trade deal optimism and strong earnings. The S&P hit a record high, while the Dow surged, nearing its own peak. Investors welcomed a finalized Japan trade deal with 15% tariffs, and hopes grew for a similar EU agreement. GE Vernova soared on raised guidance, General Dynamics jumped on strong earnings. Texas Instruments fell on tariff-related concerns, while Tesla and Alphabet traded flat ahead of earnings. Crypto markets corrected on profit taking.

Thursday

On Thursday, the S&P and Nasdaq hit record highs, lifted by Alphabet’s strong earnings and higher AI spending plans. Alphabet boosted other tech stocks like Microsoft and Nvidia, while Tesla dropped 8% on Musk’s warning. The Dow fell due to declines in IBM and UnitedHealth. Markets also reacted to Trump’s unexpected Fed visit, where he pressured Powell on rates. Trade talks with the EU, Japan, and South Korea progressed, though Trump insisted tariffs wouldn’t drop below 15%. Crypto markets were mixed with ETH and BTC prepare to enter into a correction phase.

Friday

On Friday, the S&P climbed, marking its fifth straight record close — the longest streak in over a year — while the Nasdaq 100 edged up after an intraday peak. The Dow gained points as investors weighed trade updates and corporate earnings. Trade optimism boosted markets, with Trump set to meet EU leaders amid hopes for a deal. Agreements with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines were reached before the August 1 tariff deadline, though Canada talks stalled. Strong results from Alphabet and Verizon lifted mood, but Intel’s weak outlook hurt tech stocks. Focus now shifts to next week’s Fed meeting and earnings from Apple, Meta, and Microsoft. Crypto markets continued to move side-ways slowly entering into a correction mode.

On Week 31, investors will watch US-EU trade talks ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline, while megacaps like Apple and Microsoft report earnings. The Fed, BoJ, and others will decide on rates, and key economic data — including US GDP and jobs figures — will be released globally.

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SVET Markets Weekly Update (July 14–18, 2025)

On Week 29, the S&P rose 0.5%, the Nasdaq gained 1.4%. Crypto market continued to rally boosted by a passage of the stable coin bill.

Monday

On Monday, stocks edged higher as investors balanced Trump’s new tariff threats against optimism over earnings and inflation data and additionally lifted by tech stocks like Meta and Netflix. Trump proposed 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican goods starting August 1, but hopes for negotiations tempered concerns. Markets await Q2 earnings reports from major banks, including JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, and June’s CPI data, which may show tariff impacts on inflation.

While Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Broadcom declined, Meta and Alphabet rose. Tesla gained 1% as Musk announced a shareholder vote on its xAI investment.  The crypto market corrected after the new Bitcoin all time high over the weekend.

World’s Markets:

• China’s industrial production rose 6.8% year-on-year in June 2025, rebounding from May’s 5.8% growth and exceeding forecasts of 5.6%. This marked the strongest expansion since March, fueled by government stimulus. Manufacturing led the recovery (7.4% vs 6.2% in May), while mining output also improved (6.1% vs 5.7%). Utilities growth slowed slightly (1.8% vs 2.2%). Among 41 manufacturing sectors, 36 showed gains, with notable increases in automotive (11.4%), tech (11.0%), and shipbuilding (10.1%). Monthly output grew 0.5%, bringing first-half growth to 6.4%.
  

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Tuesday

On Tuesday, stocks mostly declined as investors weighed potential tariffs and the Fed’s policy outlook. The S&P 500 hovered near flat after hitting a record high, while the Dow dropped. June inflation met expectations, but core inflation slightly missed. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates due to lingering tariff-related inflation risks. The White House continues trade talks with the EU, Japan, and Korea after imposing new tariffs, which could drive prices higher in August. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo fell post-earnings, while Citigroup outperformed. Nvidia surged after the U.S. eased some China export restrictions, lifting the Nasdaq. Crypto markets continued to correct.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, main market indexes were rising as producer prices rose 2.6% YoY in June, slowing sharply from May’s 3.2% and slightly below the 2.7% forecast, marking the weakest increase in nearly a year. Traders disregarded slowed manufacturing monthly growth and mortgage applications dropping 10%. Investors’ optimism rose on expectations on Fed rate’s cuts. Crypto market was in green led by ETH.

Details

• In June producer prices remained steady compared to May, missing the expected 0.2% rise after a revised 0.3% increase previously. Services prices dropped 0.1%, driven by a 4.1% decline in accommodation costs, while retailing, airline, and wholesale prices also fell. Goods prices rose 0.3%, the highest since February, led by communication equipment (0.8%). Gasoline, electricity, and certain food prices also increased. Annual producer inflation slowed to 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, below forecasts. Core PPI was flat (vs. 0.2% expected), with the annual rate dropping to 2.6% from 3.2%.
• Mortgage applications dropped 10% in mid-July 2025, wiping out the prior week’s 9.4% gain – the steepest decline in nearly three months, as per the Mortgage Bankers Association. The slump was driven by a 5-basis-point rise in mortgage rates and growing economic uncertainty, discouraging households from major commitments. Refinancing applications, more sensitive to rate changes, plunged 12%, while home purchase applications fell 7%.
  

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Thursday

On Thursday, stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting fresh record highs. Strong earnings from United Airlines, PepsiCo, and TSMC, which boosted chip stocks like Nvidia, along with robust economic data fueled the rally. June retail sales rose 0.6%, surpassing forecasts, while jobless claims fell to 221K, a three-month low, signaling economic resilience. Investors now await Netflix’s earnings report. ETH continued to climb leading the crypto market rise.

Friday

On Friday, stocks ended little changed as investors balanced Trump’s push for higher EU tariffs (15–20%) against positive economic data and earnings. The Dow fell, dragged by American Express, while the S&P and Nasdaq hovered near records. Netflix dropped despite strong results, while Charles Schwab and Chevron gained. The University of Michigan’s survey showed improved consumer confidence and lower inflation expectations (4.4%, a 5-month low). ETH and the rest of the crypto market continued to rally lifter by the passed stable-coin bill.

On Week 30, next week, markets will watch for trade developments and earnings reports from major firms like Alphabet, Tesla, and Coca-Cola. Key data includes PMIs, durable goods orders, and home sales. Global focus will be on ECB and other central bank decisions, along with international indicators like Eurozone PMIs, German Ifo index, UK retail sales, and Tokyo CPI. Japan’s upper house election results will also draw attention.

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SVET Markets Weekly Update – July 7–11, 2025

On Week 28, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were flat, while the Dow is in red and Bitcoin made the new ATH.

Monday

On Monday, stocks fell sharply as Trump escalated tariffs, announcing 25% duties on all Japanese and South Korean imports effective August 1, plus an extra 10% for BRICS-aligned nations. Toyota and Honda slid over 4%, with AMD and Nvidia dipping slightly. Tesla plunged 7% after Musk’s plan to form a political party raised concerns about brand dilution. Treasury warned more tariff letters would follow. Crypto market was in red too.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, equities showed muted movement amid mixed tariff signals from Trump. After first postponing “Liberation Day” duties to August 1, he later ruled out extensions, creating trade uncertainty. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were flat, while the Dow fell. Copper futures jumped 10% after Trump announced 50% copper tariffs, boosting mining stocks. Pharma shares fluctuated as Trump proposed 200% drug tariffs with a potential grace period. Tesla gained, while Amazon dipped. Markets await Wednesday’s Fed minutes and Delta earnings. Crypto market was up slightly

Wednesday

On Wednesday, markets were in green as in June employers announced 48K job cuts — the lowest monthly figure this year — down from 94K in May and 49K a year earlier. Andrew Challenger of Challenger, Gray & Christmas noted economic conditions as the primary cause, with minimal impact from tariffs. Consumer products led job losses (9,500), followed by services, financial, healthcare, retail, and government sectors. Q2 saw 247,256 cuts, the highest since 2020, while year-to-date layoffs reached 744,308, also a post-2020 peak. Government cuts (288,628) faced legal delays, while retail (79,865) suffered from tariffs, inflation, and uncertainty. Crypto were on a rise.

Thursday

On Thursday, equities ended mostly higher as robust earnings and record rallies overshadowed Trump’s new tariff threats. Markets shrugged off planned 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports and upcoming duties on copper. Nvidia extended gains after hitting a $4 trillion valuation, boosting AI optimism. Tesla surged on robotaxi and Grok chatbot updates. Delta soared after reaffirming its outlook, lifting airline stocks. Weekly jobless claims fell to 227K, reflecting a gradually slowing labor market. Also the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, contrary to forecasts of 4.3%. This marks over a year of stability within a tight 4.0%-4.2% range. BTC and ETH rallied on traders’ optimism.

Details

• The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% in June from 4.2% in May, contrary to forecasts of 4.3%. This marks over a year of stability within a tight 4.0%-4.2% range. While unemployment rolls decreased by 222K to 7.015M and employment grew by 93,000, the labor force contracted by 130K. The participation rate dipped to 62.3% — a December 2022 low — and the employment-population ratio remained at 59.7%, a January 2022 low. The broader U-6 rate, including underemployed workers, edged down to 7.7%.
  

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Friday

On Friday, the S&P and the Nasdaq declined, retreating from record highs. The Dow dropped as investors reacted to new tariff threats from the Trump administration’s plans to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1 and raise tariffs on most other trading partners to 15%-20%, up from 10%. The EU will soon receive formal notice. Traders also prepared for earnings season and key economic data, including CPI. All sectors declined, with materials and healthcare hit hardest. Megacaps were mixed: Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Broadcom, Alphabet, and Tesla fell, while Nvidia and Amazon rose. Crypto market is still in green.

On Week 29, trade policy updates will further influence global growth and markets, alongside a busy earnings season and key economic data releases. President Trump may announce new tariffs, including for the EU. Major U.S. banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs will report earnings, along with TSMC, Netflix, and others. Key U.S. data includes likely rising CPI and flat retail sales. The UK will release inflation figures, while the Euro Area focuses on trade balances and industrial output. China’s Q2 GDP is expected to stay above 5%, with additional trade and monetary data due.

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SVET Markets Weekly Update  – June 30 — July 3, 2025

On Week 27, all major indexes (including crypto) were on the rise as  Fed chairman Jerome Powell signaled likely rate cuts this year which was added to by a growing Trump’s tariffs’ optimism.

Monday

On Monday, stocks climbed as investors pushed for fresh record highs to end a turbulent first half of 2025. The S&P and Nasdaq each rose, hitting new peaks, while the Dow gained 207 points, buoyed by Big Tech leaders like Microsoft and Meta. Trade optimism grew after Canada dropped its digital services tax on U.S. firms, easing tensions. Markets are watching the July 9 deadline for Trump’s tariff reprieve, hoping new deals will prevent hikes. Treasury yields fell amid expectations of Fed rate cuts, supporting stocks. The S&P posted its strongest quarter since late 2023, driven by robust earnings and steady inflation. Meanwhile, crypto market is going sideway.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, equities were mixed as sectors reacted differently to policy updates. The S&P held steady near record highs, while the Nasdaq fell and the Dow jumped. The Senate narrowly approved Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax bill, though House objections loomed over debt concerns. Powell signaled likely rate cuts this year, but yields rose on strong job data and higher-than-expected inflation. Tech stocks dropped as Congress moved to regulate AI, while Tesla fell amid Musk-Trump tensions. Healthcare, industrials, and utilities lifted the Dow. Crypto market was not moving much.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, markets climbed as job cuts fell to 48K in June — the lowest this year — down from May’s 94K. Consumer products led layoffs, followed by services, finance, healthcare, retail, and government. Despite June’s dip, Q2 saw 247K cuts — the highest since 2020 — with 744K total job losses this year. Retail suffered from tariffs and inflation, while government layoffs faced legal delays. Meanwhile, Eurozone unemployment rose to 6.3% in May, near historic lows. Cryptocurrencies gained.

Thursday

On Thursday, three major stock indexes gained, with S&P and Nasdaq hitting record highs. June nonfarm payrolls surged to 147K, beating forecasts, while unemployment unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, signaling economic strength. Tech stocks rallied, including Nvidia and Synopsys which jumped boosted by AI earnings and eased chip-software export rules for China. Market sentiment also improved due to progress on a Vietnam trade deal and near-passage of $3.4T spending bill. Crypto market is also up.

Friday

On Friday, main markets were closed as the dollar index fell below 97, ending a two-day rally as trade policy concerns resurfaced. Trump’s plan to set unilateral tariffs before the July 9 deadline renewed market uncertainty. Meanwhile, the House approved his tax and spending bill, expected to widen the deficit by $3 trillion. On the economic front, June job gains of 147K exceeded forecasts and May’s 144K, easing recession fears and reducing near-term pressure for Fed rate cuts. BTC and ETH were in red.

World’s Markets:

• The FAO Food Price Index rose 0.5% to 128 points in June 2025, nearing 2023 highs. Vegetable oils climbed 2.3% due to higher palm, rapeseed, and soy oil prices, offsetting a dip in sunflower oil. Meat prices hit a record (up 2.1%), led by all categories except poultry. Dairy rose 0.5%, with butter surging 2.8% to a new peak on tight Oceania/EU supplies and Asian demand. Cereals fell 1.5% to a September 2020 low, as maize prices dropped on abundant South American supplies. Sugar plunged 5.2% to an April 2021 low amid improved production.

Commodities and Currencies:

• Brent crude dropped to $68.2/barrel as markets anticipated OPEC+’s potential output hike at this week’s meeting. The group plans to add 411,000 bpd in August, fueling oversupply concerns. While the US-Vietnam trade deal offered modest support, uncertainty persists as key partners like the EU and Japan lack agreements before the July 9 tariff deadline. The US announced new Iranian oil sanctions targeting companies and tankers, tightening pressure on Tehran. Despite Friday’s decline, Brent remains 2% higher for the week, recovering from its worst weekly slump in two years.

On Week 25, investors will watch trade developments as the July 9 tariff pause deadline nears. The Trump administration has notified trading partners of upcoming tariffs, with only the UK, Vietnam, and China securing deals so far. Markets will also focus on the FOMC minutes for hints on Fed policy, as Powell remains cautious. The economic calendar is light, but global attention will be on China’s inflation data, UK GDP, German industrial production, Canada’s jobs report, and central bank decisions in Australia, South Korea, Malaysia, and New Zealand.

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SVET Markets Weekly Update June 23–27, 2025

On Week 26, markets were in green.

Monday

On Monday, equities rose as investors eased concerns over escalating Middle East tensions after Iran’s restrained retaliation for American airstrikes. Crude prices plunged nearly 7% after Iran’s intercepted missile strike caused no casualties, hitting energy stocks like ExxonMobil and Chevron. Markets viewed Iran’s avoidance of key oil infrastructure as de-escalatory. Trump’s call for lower oil prices added pressure. Tesla surged on its driverless taxi debut, while AMD gained on an analyst upgrade, boosting tech stocks. Existing home sales increased. This growth follows a slight dip the prior month and surpassed market predictions of a further decline. Crypto markets attempted to recover of weekend’s flash-crash prompted by the escalating conflict on the Middle-East.

World Markets

• The Eurozone PMI signaled a sixth month of subdued growth, missing expectations. Both the services and manufacturing sectors saw stagnant or declining activity. New orders experienced a slight dip, though at the slowest rate in over a year, mainly due to weaker export orders influenced by a weaker euro and US tariff uncertainties.
  

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Tuesday

On Tuesday, stocks rallied as easing Middle East tensions and falling oil prices lifted investor sentiment. The S&P neared a record, while the Nasdaq jumped to an ATH. A tentative Israel-Iran ceasefire held despite minor clashes, and oil prices dropped over 6%, dragging Exxon and Chevron but boosting airlines like Delta. Chip stocks led gains, with Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD soaring. Fed chairmain Jerome Powell signaled no immediate rate cuts but left room for flexibility if needed. Crypto market continued its recovery attempt after weekend’s crash.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, stocks were slightly in red, correcting from recent gains as investors weighed the Fed’s policy stance amid easing Middle East tensions. The S&P and Nasdaq hovered near breakeven, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high earlier, while the Dow dipped. Powell reiterated caution in his congressional testimony, emphasizing the need for more economic clarity before rate cuts but suggesting potential easing if April’s tariffs prove less severe than expected. Energy prices stabilized as Middle East shipping lanes remained open. Tech outperformed, with Nvidia, Alphabet, and AMD rising, while Tesla dropped on weak European sales. BTC was rising while ETH went sideways.

Details

• The Fed held rates at 4.25%–4.50% in June 2025, pausing to assess Trump’s policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes. Uncertainty remains elevated. It projects two 2025 rate cuts but only one in 2026–2027. GDP growth was revised to 1.4% (2025) and 1.6% (2026), with 2027 unchanged at 1.8%. Unemployment is now 4.5% (2025–26). PCE inflation is forecast at 3.0% (2025), 2.4% (2026), and 2.1% (2027).
  

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Thursday

On Thursday, stocks surged as geopolitical tensions eased, tech giants performed well, and hopes for rate cuts grew. The S&P is nearing a record high, while the Nasdaq extended its winning streak. The Dow Jones jumped points after the White House softened tariff concerns, easing trade war fears. Speculation about an early Fed chair appointment under Trump also boosted market optimism. However, Q1 economic data showed a 0.5% contraction and a widening trade deficit due to weaker exports. The crypto market was up.

Friday

On Friday, equities stocks hit record highs amid optimism about trade deals and potential rate cuts, despite Trump’s comments on pausing Canada trade talks. The S&P surpassed its February peak. Early gains followed positive trade updates, including a China framework deal. Though Trump’s remarks briefly weighed, the rally held, supported by easing inflation, strong earnings, and improved consumer sentiment. Nike soared on strong results, and Amazon rose after an upgrade. Core PCE inflation edged up slightly, reinforcing market confidence. Crypto markets went sideway.

On Week 27, investors will closely monitor progress in trade talks with key partners as the July 9th deadline nears, marking the end of a 90-day tariff pause imposed in April. Market participants will also focus on the ECB Central Bank Forum, where Powell and other top policymakers are set to share their views on the economic and monetary policy outlook. On the economic data front, the jobs report is expected to show further softening in the labor market. Other critical indicators include the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, trade balance figures, China’s official and Caixin PMIs, Eurozone inflation data, German factory orders, Japan’s Tankan business sentiment survey, and Australia’s trade statistics.

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SVET Markets Weekly Update  – June 16th–20, 2025

On Week 25, all major indexes and crypto were down due to geopolitical escalations.

Monday

On Monday, major indexes went down as NY Manufacturing Index fell in June significantly,missing expectations and indicating further worsening business conditions. This marked its lowest point since March. New orders and shipments both declined, and supply availability deteriorated. While inventories remained stable, employment edged up for the first time in months, and the average workweek held steady. The US 20-Year Bond Yield dropped. Despite this recent dip, the yield is still higher than it was a year ago. Crypto markets went volatile readying for a correction after a significant rise several weeks ago.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, stocks declined as escalating Middle East tensions fueled fears of direct America’s involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Trump’s strong rhetoric, demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender” intensified anxieties. Domestically, disappointing May retail sales, down 0.9%, indicated slowing consumer buying likely impacted by tariffs. In corporate news, JetBlue Airways sank on warnings of weak travel demand, pulling down other major airlines. Conversely, ExxonMobil and Chevron gained 1.3% and 3.2%, respectively, as oil prices surged 4%. Crypto markets are in red.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, equities ended mixed after the Fed held interest rates steady. The Dow and S&P 500 slipped marginally, while the Nasdaq gained. Fed chairman Jerome Powell maintained a cautious, data-dependent stance, citing unclear tariff impacts on inflation and stagflation risks. The Fed now projects two rate cuts in 2025, alongside revised lower growth and higher inflation forecasts. Investor sentiment was also weighed down by escalating Middle East tensions, fueling fears of deeper US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Technology stocks outperformed, but energy led declines. Crypto were in red setting a stage for Bart Simpson pattern correction.

Commodities and Currencies:

The dollar index remained stable, maintaining gains after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Powell indicated potential inflation increases due to Trump’s tariffs and downgraded growth forecasts, yet reaffirmed two 25 basis point rate cuts for 2025, surprising markets. The dollar also benefited from safe-haven demand amid escalating Middle East tensions. Iran’s Supreme Leader warned of “irreparable damage” if the America intervenes militarily, adding to geopolitical anxieties.

Platinum prices have surged over 45% this year to a ten-year high above $1,330 per ounce. This bullish trend is driven by a significant supply deficit and strong investor sentiment, especially after London Platinum Week. The narrowing gold/platinum ratio signals platinum is seen as an undervalued alternative. Middle East tensions also fueled safe-haven buying. Additionally, rising demand from Asian markets and its crucial role in automotive catalysts and the hydrogen economy are tightening global supply.

Thursday 

On Thursday, the stock market was mostly in red as the dollar rose driven by safe-haven demand amidst the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. Reports suggest Trump granted Iran two weeks for nuclear negotiations, delaying potential military action. Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, with Powell emphasizing a cautious, data-dependent approach. Powell warned that Trump’s tariffs could fuel inflation, while the Fed also downgraded growth forecasts but reaffirmed two 25 basis point rate cuts for 2025. Traders are now anticipating Friday’s Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and the Conference Board’s leading economic indicators. Crypto markets followed stocks into the red zone.

Friday

On Friday, the Manufacturing Index remained at -4.0 in June 2025, missing expectations and signaling continued subdued manufacturing activity. While new orders declined but stayed positive, and shipments improved, both fell below long-term averages. Critically, the employment index dropped into negative territory, hitting its lowest point since May 2020, indicating job contraction. Though price pressures eased slightly, input and output prices remained historically high. Furthermore, forward-looking indicators showed waning optimism, with fewer firms expecting growth over the next six months. Crypto is in red.

Week 26 is expected to be volatile, with markets sensitive to geopolitical developments, inflation data, and Fed signals.

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SVET Markets Weekly Update (May 26 — June 1, 2025)

On Week 22, The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 6.2% and 9.6% in May — their best since November 2023 — while the Dow rose 3.9%. Crypto was down.

Monday
On Monday, equities rallied sharply as easing trade war fears boosted investor sentiment. Trump delayed EU tariffs and expressed optimism about a potential trade deal. Treasury bonds also strengthened after Japan hinted at reducing long-term debt issuance. Tesla jumped as Elon Musk pledged to focus more on his businesses, while Nvidia gained ahead of earnings. The crypto market also advanced, with ETH outperforming BTC.

Tuesday
On Tuesday, equities are down as investors assessed earnings, Fed minutes, and trade tensions before Nvidia’s results. Nvidia rose pre-earnings, seen as a test for AI market optimism. Fed minutes signaled caution amid economic uncertainty, and trade worries flared after Trump’s restrictions on chip software sales to China hit Cadence and Synopsys. Nvidia’s earnings could either revive market momentum or fuel volatility, depending on demand and China-related signals. Crypto markets were steady.

Wednesday
Wednesday saw equities rise slightly as strong earnings from companies like Nvidia and Boeing offset concerns over tariffs and economic data. However, trade uncertainty lingered after a court initially blocked Trump’s tariffs, only for an appeals court to reinstate them later in the day. Peter Navarro stated that if the administration loses court battles over trade tariffs, it will pursue other methods to enforce them. Best Buy lowered its outlook, blaming tariff-related risks, dragging its stock down. Meanwhile, revised GDP data showed the economy shrank 0.2% in Q1, a slight improvement from earlier estimates. Meanwhile, the crypto market moved side-ways.

Thursday

On Thursday, equities rose with Nvidia surging over 6% after strong earnings and an optimistic AI growth forecast. Sentiment improved after a court ruled Trump overstepped his authority in imposing tariffs, easing trade war fears — though appeals may follow. The latest GDP data showed a 0.2% Q1 contraction, better than the initial 0.3% estimate, but corporate profits fell 3.6%. Tech led gains, while consumer staples, utilities, and industrials lagged. Crypto markets declined.

Friday

On Friday, stocks fluctuated, ending a turbulent but positive May as investors assessed renewed China trade tensions and softer inflation data. Markets reacted to Trump’s accusations of China violating their trade deal and reports of expanded tech restrictions on Chinese firms. Stalled trade talks and legal doubts over tariffs added to concerns. Cooling inflation data provided some relief. Crypto markets declined.

On Week 23, markets will brace for volatility as Trump’s trade war threats resurface. Key focus includes jobs data, PMIs, Fed speeches, and global central bank decisions. Inflation reports from Europe and Asia, plus GDP and trade figures from multiple nations, will also drive sentiment.

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SVET Markets Weekly Update  – May 19th–23rd, 2025

On Week 21, the world’s trade conflict dominated the news with the S&P going down 2%, the Dow — 2.2%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.6%. At the same time BTC reached a new ATH – energizing crypto-traders.

Monday

On Monday, stocks recovered from early downs, as the S&P rose, aided by declining Treasury yields. The Dow gained, while the Nasdaq edged up slightly. Markets reacted to Moody’s downgrade of the America’s credit rating to Aa1, citing rising deficits, which pushed the 10-year yield near 4.5% and the 30-year above 5%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed concerns and called for trade talks during the tariff pause. Energy, tech, and consumer sectors underperformed, while healthcare and utilities limited losses. Apple and Tesla fell, but UnitedHealth surged 8.2%. The crypto market remained volatile, with BTC and ETH holding steady.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, stocks fell, ending the S&P 500’s six-day rally, while the Nasdaq and the Dow also slipped. The decline followed earlier gains fueled by trade optimism and Trump’s tax and tariff proposals, but uncertainty over trade talks and political pushback on taxes dampened sentiment. Tech stocks dragged the market lower, with Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, and declining, though Tesla rose after Musk affirmed his CEO role. Mixed Home Depot earnings, warnings from JPMorgan, and Fed concerns over tariffs added pressure. Crypto markets were mixed.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, the Dow, S&P and the Nasdaq fall as rising Treasury yields reflected investor concerns over a federal budget plan that may widen the deficit. The bill faced opposition from some Republicans pushing for higher state and local tax deductions, potentially hindering Trump’s tax agenda. Markets await jobless claims data for labor market clues. In corporate updates, Lumen Technologies jumped after AT&T agreed to buy its fiber business, while Snowflake and Urban Outfitters rose on strong earnings. Cryptocurrencies also gained.

Thursday

On Thursday, Equities ended nearly flat as investors balanced Trump’s tax-and-spending bill — featuring cuts and higher defense spending — against worries over the growing deficit. The S&P 500 and Dow dipped slightly, while the Nasdaq rose. The bill, which could add trillions to the national debt, faces Senate review, with the CBO estimating a $4 trillion cost. Treasury yields climbed, with the 30-year hitting 5.14%, a 2023 high. Solar stocks dragged energy down, while communication services gained. PMI rose to 52.1, showing economic resilience despite mixed housing and labor data. BTC retreated after a record high, pulling crypto markets lower.

Friday

On Friday, stocks went down as Trump’s tariff threats against Apple and the EU reignited trade fears. Apple shares dipped below a $3 Trillion valuation, after Trump proposed a 25% tariff on iPhones not made in America. He also suggested a 50% tariff on EU imports from June 1, worsening trade tensions. Tech stocks like Micron, Qualcomm, and Nvidia fell over 1%, leading the decline. The drop came just as optimism grew over paused tariffs and progress in UK and China trade talks. The crypto market also followed stocks lower, with BTC correcting from its ATH.

On Week 22, markets face potential volatility as Trump’s renewed tariff threats on the EU and Apple loom. Investors await Fed commentary, FOMC minutes, and key U.S. data including PCE inflation and Q1 GDP. Globally, focus turns to central bank decisions in South Korea and New Zealand, European inflation reports, and Q1 GDP figures from major economies. Japan and Germany will also release key economic indicators.

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SVET Markets Weekly Update May 12th–16th, 2025

On Week 20, the S&P 500 (+5%), Dow (+3%), and Nasdaq (+7%) had strong weekly gains, led by Nvidia.

Monday

On Monday, stocks surged after China agreed to temporarily cut tariffs, easing trade war fears. Tech and consumer discretionary led gains, while pharma lagged on drug price concerns. The government saw a $258B April budget surplus, up 23% YoY, driven by strong tax receipts and higher tariffs (averaging $500M daily). Tariff revenue may drop after China deal, and surplus was aided by deferred taxes and calendar shifts.

The crypto market was in red with BTC and ETH dropping more than 2%.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, equities rose as easing China trade tensions and mild inflation data lifted sentiment. The Nasdaq 100 jumped led by chip stocks like Nvidia. BTC and ETH also climbed, with Ether up 8%. Gold dropped on reduced safe-haven demand. However, softer inflation (2.3% in April) and strong ETF inflows, are keeping rate-cut hopes alive.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, markets were mixed as investors weighed upbeat tech momentum against persistent concerns around global trade and monetary policy. The S&P 500 inched up 0.1%, while the Dow slipped 89 points. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed, climbing 0.7% thanks to strong gains in chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD, as optimism around AI and easing U.S.-China tariffs helped lift sentiment.

World’s Markets:

• Still, the broader mood remained cautious. The 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 4.5% — its highest level since February — on hopes that tariff cuts might spur growth. Yet, the Fed’s cautious tone lingers, and traders have scaled back their expectations for rate cuts this year, now pricing in just two instead of four, even after weak April inflation data. Some say tariff-related stockpiling may have temporarily masked price pressures.
• Meanwhile in China, credit data painted a more subdued picture. Banks issued just CNY 280 billion in new loans in April — marking the weakest pace since 2005 and well below last year’s figure — amid growing strains from the trade standoff. However, total social financing held up better at CNY 1.16 trillion, helped by strong government bond issuance, and money supply growth accelerated to 8%, the fastest in a year.

Crypto: In crypto, sentiment was weaker. BTC gave ground, and ETH slid more than 3%.

The State Of Markets: Mixed; as China’s trade deal remains in investors’ focus.

Thursday

On Thursday, stocks rose as core producer prices dropped 0.4% MoM in April 2025 — the first decline in five months — missing forecasts of a 0.3% rise. Yearly growth slowed to 3.1%, the lowest in eight months. Meanwhile, retail sales edged up 0.1% in April, slightly surpassing expectations, though spending weakened due to new tariffs. Gains were seen in dining, furniture, and electronics, while sporting goods and clothing sales fell. Core retail sales (used for GDP calculations) dipped 0.2%, below forecasts. Additionally, continuing jobless claims rose to 1.88 million in early May, remaining below the historical average of 2.74M.

Crypto was in red.

Friday

On Friday, Wall Street ended the week strong as major indexes posted solid gains, fueled by easing China trade tensions. The S&P 500 rose, its fifth straight gain. A 90-day tariff truce boosted sentiment, though weak consumer data slightly dampened the rally. Tech stocks were mixed, as were crypto markets.

On Week 27, next week investors will be monitoring the core inflation rate, PPI as well as other core date including Manufacturing Index, Building Permits and Housing Starts.

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SVET Markets Weekly Update April 28 — May 4, 2025

On Week 18, major stock indexes are up due to progress in trade talks and earnings reports. Crypto continued to rise throughout the week, roughly following the stock market.

Monday

On Monday, stocks wavered as the manufacturing activity index hit a low not seen since May 2020. Production edged down, while new orders and shipments fell sharply. Sentiment weakened, and outlook uncertainty rose. Employment dipped slightly, and cost pressures increased. The services index fell to its lowest level since October 2023, signaling worsening conditions. Revenue edged up, but employment weakened. Outlook uncertainty hit a earlier mid-2022 high, while price pressures intensified. The Home Index climbed in February, marking the sharpest monthly rise since May 2024. The crypto market was uncertain, similar to equities.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, equities were in green as weak economic data bolstered rate-cut expectations. Job openings missed forecasts, while corporate earnings lifted Pfizer and Honeywell. Trade uncertainty hit UPS and GM, as tariffs pushed the trade deficit to a record high. Goods trade deficit hit a record $162B in March 2025, surpassing forecasts, as firms rushed imports ahead of potential tariffs. Imports surged 5% monthly (30.8% annually), outpacing exports’ modest 1.2% gain. Eurozone inflation expectations rose in March, with the 1-year outlook hitting 2.9% (highest since April 2024) and the 3-year forecast reaching 2.5%. Eurozone economic sentiment missed forecasts and hit a 4-month low. Confidence declined across all sectors, with consumers showing particular pessimism. Crypto market rose with stocks.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, stocks extended gains to seven sessions despite a surprise 0.3% contraction in Q1 GDP. Core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred gauge) was flat in March 2025, missing forecasts of a slight increase. Annual growth slowed to 2.6% — the weakest since March 2021 — from February’s 3%. The private sector added just 62K jobs in April 2025 — the weakest growth since July 2024 — far below forecasts of 115K and the prior month’s 147K. Hiring slowed in services (particularly in education and health) with a decline of 23K, but rose in construction by 16K. Economists cited policy uncertainty weighing on labor demand.

World’s Markets:

• The Eurozone economy grew 1.2% year-over-year in Q1 2025, in line with Q4 2024 and above the 1% forecast. Germany’s GDP shrank 0.2%, while France and Italy grew by 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively. Spain led with 2.8% growth.

Commodities and Currencies:

• The dollar index rose to 99.8, extending gains on trade deal optimism after Trump hinted at agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea. The rally persisted despite Q1’s surprise 0.3% contraction in US GDP — the first in three years — driven by weak spending and surging imports.

Crypto:

• Crypto markets remained in an accumulation mode.

The State Of Markets: Up, on trade optimism and earnings.

Thursday

On Thursday, stocks went red as job cuts fell 62% (April vs March), but remained 63% higher than April 2024 — the highest April total since 2020. Government, tech and retail led 2025’s cuts, with firms citing economic uncertainty and tech adoption. Manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.7 in April 2025, marking a second contraction month. Output fell sharply while prices rose. Trade disruptions hurt exports, though job losses slowed. Manufacturers cited tariff pressures and volatile demand. Crypto markets grew, continuing to recover after the Trump tariff’s crush.

Friday

On Friday, stocks surged as strong jobs data and easing China trade tensions fueled optimism. The S&P notched a 9-day rally — its longest in 20 years. Unemployment held at 4.2% in April 2025, matching forecasts. Joblessness rose with the U-6 jobless rate dipping to 7.8%. Eurozone inflation held at 2.2% in April 2025, slightly above forecasts (2.1%) and ECB’s target. Soaring service costs offset falling energy prices, while core inflation rose to 2.7% from 2.4%. Monthly prices grew 0.6%. Global food prices rose 1% in April 2025, marking a 3-month uptrend. Cereals, dairy, and meat (led by pork) drove gains, while sugar and vegetable oils declined. The crypto market rose, following stocks.

On Week 19, markets await China trade talks, the Fed’s rate decision, and Q1 earnings. Key data includes ISM Services PMI and global trade figures. Rate decisions are due from the UK, Brazil, Poland, and Norway, while inflation reports will be watched in Switzerland, Turkey, and Mexico.

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On Week 17, the S&P 500 gained 4%, the Nasdaq 6%, and the Dow 2% on tariffs optimism and peace talks. Crypto markets corrected a bit after explosive growth during the previous week.

Monday
On Monday, stocks are in deep red, continuing volatility as traders waver in their future predictions due to the swings in the White House, which is now trying to fire Jerome Powell. Treasuries continue to fall as investors exit American equities. Gold reached a new ATH. The dollar is down, with the euro hitting a 3.5-year high. BTC made a breakout attempt, aiming to reach $90K; the dollar’s growing weakness may explain this.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, stocks are up following Scott Bessent’s comment about the trade war ‘de-escalation,’ which is adding to the market’s volatility. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity is at a 6-month low, with shipments and new orders plummeting. The IMF cut its global economic growth estimate to 2.8% from 3.3% and to 1.8% from 2.7% for the US. Europe’s consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level in 1.5 years. Oil prices are up, while gold has corrected sharply. The crypto market surged after equities, with BTC breaking through the 90K resistance and ETH moving to 1.7K.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, stocks rose, boosted by easing China trade tensions and Trump’s assurance that he wouldn’t remove Powell. However, gains moderated as doubts emerged over a near-term trade resolution as Bessent noted no unilateral tariff cuts were proposed, cooling optimism. Tesla jumped 5.4% as Musk pledged to focus on his companies. Meanwhile, the Services PMI dropped in April, missing forecasts. The World Bank cut India’s 2025–26 growth forecast to 6.3% amid global uncertainty. Oil prices slid below $62, as OPEC+ supply hike fears grew. Gold fell below $3,280 after a record high. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.31% as Trump’s Powell comments eased Fed independence concerns. The crypto market is mixed with BTC sliding below 93K.

Thursday

On Thursday, equities are in green amid the spectacle of China tariff negotiations, while manufacturing orders surged for commercial aircraft, though the national activity index fell along with existing home sales. China plans to issue bonds to cushion the economy against trade tensions. Meanwhile, the CCP, faced with a slowing GDP growth, has reduced the number of restricted industries for foreigners from 117 to 106, liberalizing sectors such as TV production, telecommunications, and forest seed imports. Gold is up, as more traders are moving into it in anticipation of further growth amidst the ongoing trade war. BTC and the rest of the crypto market have paused, preparing for a correction after explosive growth over the past two days.

Friday

On Friday, stocks rose for the fourth straight session, lifted by Big Tech, though trade tensions lingered after Trump proposed 50% tariffs. China’s tariff exemptions on some US goods boosted optimism, but Beijing denied ongoing talks. Alphabet rose on strong earnings and a $70B buyback, while Tesla surged on new self-driving rules. Intel dropped on weak guidance. Oil inched up to $83/barrel but fell over 1% weekly on oversupply worries and trade uncertainty. Ukraine peace talks showed progress but lacked final terms. Crypto lingers around previous day’s levels.

On Week 8, markets will watch trade talks and earnings from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta. Key data includes Q1 GDP, jobs, and inflation. Eurozone GDP, Japan’s rate decision, China’s PMI, and Australia’s inflation will also be in focus.

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SVET Markets Weekly Update (April 14–18, 2025)

On Week 16, stocks went red as gold skyrocketed and the dollar fell, as the new White House Administration continued to teach the world its unconventional ‘art of the deal’.

Monday

On Monday markets were mixed as Trump reconsidered the tariff for electronics and consumers’ inflation expectations jumped to 3.6% from 3.1% — the highest in 2 years — while prices for food and rent increased and gas costs decreased.

World’s Markets:

• European, South American, and Asian equities are in the green due to the delay on tariffs.
• China’s trade surplus soared to $103B from $58B as exporters rushed to ship goods ahead of tariffs.

Commodities and Currencies:

• Oil prices continued to be under pressure as Iran nuclear talks progressed, opening the gates for more oil to hit the market if sanctions are lifted.
• The dollar index remains at a 3-year low as dollar-nominated assets went on sale, thanks to the White House’s ‘pro-domestic-manufacturing’ economic policies.

Crypto:

• The crypto markets are mostly in the green due to technical factors, as hopeful traders continued to buy the dip. This is further supported by the weakness of the dollar, prompting some investors to bet on BTC growth.

The State Of Markets: In the green, mostly, markets continue to swing as Trump teaches the world his ‘art of the deal”.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, stocks fell while manufacturing contraction slowed down. Boeing experienced a decline due to a pause in deliveries to China. European industrial production rose for the first time in 22 months, driven by energy and non-durable consumer goods, while economic sentiment dropped to its lowest level since December 2022. This is an indication of counterproductive geopolitics taking precedence over economics, threatening to undermine an overall strong industrial revival. The crypto market is mixed as BTC lingers under major resistance at $85K-$86K; breaking through this level might spark new bullish hopes.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, stocks went red after Powell remarked on the risks of increased inflation and slow growth. Meanwhile, monthly retail sales jumped as consumers loaded up on purchases ahead of tariffs, and the drop in industrial production exceeded expectations as capacity utilization dipped below its long-run (1972–2024) level.

World’s Markets:

• The European core inflation rate fell to its lowest level since October 2021. China industrial production increased.

Commodities and Currencies:

• Gold set a new all-time record at $3,340, increasing by over 40% over the year due to active buying from the world’s central banks as the dollar continued to unravel because of the unprecedented economic policies of the new White House administration. Oil prices rose on Iranian sanctions.

Crypto:

• The crypto market lingers, with BTC still staying below its important resistance level at $85K. BTC is now undergoing a critical test as the world’s safe-haven asset as investors continue to sell both the dollar and Treasuries.

The State Of Markets: In the red, for the most part, as gold jumps to a new ATH and the dollar continues to devalue while Trump pushes forward with his unorthodox policies.

Thursday

On Thursday, stocks were mixed as manufacturing plunged far beyond expectations while housing starts decreased the most in a year. Adding to investors’ confusion were Trump’s comments on ‘big progress’ in trade talks with Japan and China, as well as his criticism of Powell, including calls for rate cuts.

World’s Markets:

• The ECB cut its rate to 2.25 from 2.5, citing lower inflation and acknowledging weaker growth prospects. Producer prices in Germany dropped the steepest since December 2023, led by energy — indicative of an economic slowdown — while consumer goods continued to increase.

Commodities and Currencies:

• Oil jumped on Iranian sanctions. Gold eased as traders took profits.

Crypto:

• The crypto market continues to consolidate, with BTC probing $85K.

The State Of Markets: Mixed, the world’s markets remained confused as Trump threw more ‘explosives’ of the trade war at them while targeting Powell.

Friday

On Friday, the main markets were closed for holidays.

World’s Markets:

• China’s FDI fell 10.8% to $36.9B in Q1 2025 after a record 27.1% drop in 2024, hurt by weak foreign confidence, deflation risks, and US tariff threats. However, potential tech sector easing and stimulus may revive inflows later.
• Japan’s Nikkei rose on trade deal hopes. March inflation cooled to 3.6%, while core rose to 3.2%. BOJ may hold rates at 0.5% next week. Meanwhile, Japan’s finance minister denied claims of deliberate yen weakening, stating Tokyo’s recent intervention supported the currency.
• Indonesia was set a 60-day deadline to negotiate a 32% tariff on Indonesian imports, covering trade, minerals, and supply chains. Indonesia will boost American oil, gas, and farm imports.

Crypto:

• Most cryptos were fluctuating near their yearly lows.

On Week 17, tariff uncertainty and trade tensions will fuel market volatility. Investors will monitor earnings from major firms like Tesla, Boeing, and SAP. Global PMI data, home sales, and EU confidence gauges will be key. China’s PBoC is expected to hold rates steady.

Comment: What’s Up With Politics?

The previous White House administration was an embodiment of what is wrong with the left wing of the political spectrum — a policy of ‘too little, too late.’ Aging government bureaucrats, led by a ‘leader’ who was literally decomposing before our eyes, proved to be incapable of meeting the demands of the new age of unhinged tech. The new administration, although packed with ‘young and hungry’ individuals, is essentially also led by older folks who have tried to gain — and then cling to — power by shifting from ‘not moving at all’ to ‘crazy fast.’ However, the results they have achieved so far are close to catastrophic. Still, the desperate public and their elected representatives are willing to give them all the time in the world they need to destroy everything. It seems that Churchill’s 1942 saying, ‘You can always count on Americans to do the right thing — after they’ve tried everything else,’ remains true 83 years later.

Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest into your bright future without hassle.

For more on Evernomics: https://evernomics.com/

SVET Markets Weekly Update (March 31 — April 4, 2025)

On Week 14, Trump’s imposition of tariffs on over 200 countries, crushing all markets by 10–15%, sent shockwaves that were, unquestionably, historical. On the other hand, the ability of BTC and other cryptocurrencies to withstand that blow was absolutely unprecedented.

Monday

On Monday, equities rebounded on technicals amid growing uncertainty surrounding the scale and scope of the April 2 tariffs, despite the Texas manufacturing activity index dropping to levels seen in July 2024, primarily due to a drastically deteriorating outlook. It was also noted that the Chicago business barometer showed economic contraction for the 16th consecutive month, though at the slowest pace since November 2023.

World’s Markets:

• Major European market indexes tumbled to a two-month low amid expectations of reciprocal tariffs that could target ‘all countries.’ Meanwhile, Italian consumer price inflation accelerated to its highest level in 18 months, while German inflation slowed to 2.2% (a six-month low).
• Brazilian stocks fell, led by the mining sector, due to forthcoming tariffs and subdued GDP forecasts.
• Japan’s bond yields declined as investors sought safe-haven assets.
• China’s factory activity reached a one-year high, suggesting the effectiveness of Beijing’s stimulus measures.

Commodities and Currencies:

• Gold reached a new all-time high after Trump signaled broader tariffs starting April 2, while silver aimed for a 13-year high. Oil jumped in response to a 50% sanctions-tariffs threat. Tin soared to a three-year high following an earthquake in Myanmar (the 3rd-largest tin producer), which could cause delays in restarting production in Wa State (70% of the country’s tin output).

Crypto:

• BTC, ETH, and SOL are all in the red, continuing to remain in a bearish trend.

The State Of Markets: Mixed, American equities rebounded on technicals, while the rest of the world’s stock indexes were in deep red on expectations of the April 2 tariffs.

Comment: Apocalypse Simplified.

So, what we have as the WH’s “official economic policy” is, as I have already mentioned, the “new mercantilism” or “magantilism”. Basically, it means that previously held economic concepts — 2010s-2020s new-Keynesian — go out the window together with their predecessors — 1980s-2010s Libertarian (or new-Classical, Monetarists), 1950s-1980s Keynesian, and 1930s-1950s Government Led Economy (Planned Economy, Socialism, War-Time Capitalism).

In fact (and in accordance with Generational theory), we are getting back ~100 years to the start of the 20th century, when the First World War began with several “great” imperial powers fighting for prevalence in international markets and grabbing new colonies to ensure an uninterrupted flow of natural resources to their “strategically important” (“patriotic”) manufacturers.

I do not think that the majority of Americans were just “stupid” when they voted the present Administration into the White House 3 months ago. Not at all. I believe that these changes are fundamental, that “maganomics” will continue and will prevail, supported by disillusioned, disenfranchised, and marginalized voters due to unprecedented income and social divides, despite falling markets, abused allies, and growing outcry from the left of the political spectrum. Moreover, these changes will lead in a few years to an absolutely new geopolitical and economic situation.

Let’s start with the long term. We can see that the White House is pushing world leaders to take a stance on whether they are for, against, or “non-aligned” with America. The first kind will be subordinated and given some small economic preferences. The second kind will be severely ostracized and militarily threatened even if it leads to the point of an open military conflict. Among all of those mounting military threats, third-kind countries will be simply forced into submission to one or the other side.

Let’s now look at the medium term (3–5 years). Obviously, it would be a period of stage-by-stage growing worldwide divides, worsening international relations, and, consequently, intensifying trade wars accompanied by the return of government regulations (for most G20 countries) of major sectors of the economy, especially those traditionally associated with strategic resources (including cheap food and lodging to support the poorest strata of the population — the base of the new political regime) and military. All the rest of the economy, first of all, SMEs, will be left alone (hopefully), forced to survive facing growing competitive pressure from politically-wired visionary geniuses.

So the short term — basically, “detox” out of 30–50% of people’s 401k because of the corresponding fall of major stock indexes — looks very gloomy for perma-bulls. However, traditional portfolio management strategies — that of going into safety — gold — might work better than the rest, including holding Treasuries or cash, because as we all know “detox” includes getting the USD weaker and Treasuries more expensive and less yield-bearing.

What to do in the medium term? It looks a little less dark. First of all, the local economy will start to adapt to new prohibitive trade regimes, which will be complemented by government support for key industries to alleviate the effects of falling international and domestic sales, as well as the rise of new industries like military, AI, and crypto (mostly as a result of deregulation and the poorest educated middle-class desperately looking for new sources of income).

Now, long-term portfolio management will include exiting from “risky” assets, repositioning into “strategic,” government-supported industries (military, energy, food), and of course, again growing your gold (and possibly, depending on prohibitive legislation, BTC).

So, overall, our proposed portfolio strategy to navigate the next years can be presented as Out-In-Out.

Please note that the above is not investment advice. Moreover, the future is unpredictable by definition. So this portfolio strategy is purely speculative. It can be completely changed by myself in the future as the real situation on the ground evolves.

Tuesday

On Tuesday, stock indexes are mostly in the red ahead of the April 2nd self-inflicted tariffs. Factory activity contracted for the first time in 3 months, while prices soared to their highest levels in 3 years. Additionally, there was the sharpest deterioration of business conditions in 2 years, alongside a drop in job openings.

World’s Markets:

• European inflation eased to 2.2%, with a notable drop in energy prices, while food prices surged. At the same time, unemployment continued to fall to 6.1%, with the lowest level reached in Germany (3.5%) and the highest in Spain (10.4%). Meanwhile, the EU manufacturing sector has been improving for the past four months but still remains in contraction territory.
• Spanish manufacturing fell to yearly lows (49.5) due to new orders as factory owners reduced their inventories in anticipation of lower sales ahead of the tariffs.
• The situation in the manufacturing sector is even more severe in Italy, where production has continued to decline for 12 straight months.
• France is in a slightly better position, supported by purchases from Africa and Asia; however, its production sector has also been in contraction for the past two years.
• German producers are similarly stuck in a two-year downturn, although their situation is slowly improving as well.
• Brazilian manufacturing continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace, as higher interest rates eased demand.
• China’s manufacturing rose to its highest level since November, with foreign sales growing the most in 11 months.

Commodities and Currencies:

• Gold climbed to a new record of 3130 before easing on profit-taking, marking its best quarterly performance in 40 years (since 1986).

Crypto:

• BTC, ETH, and SOL increased amid general confusion in the markets prior to the April 2 tariff disaster, which is expected to exceed the scope of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs that halved the country’s exports, led to multiple bank insolvencies, and essentially started the Great Depression.

The State Of Markets: Mixed, the world’s markets lack direction ahead of the April 2 tariffs announcement. Some traders are ‘buying the news,’ while most investors continue to de-risk in anticipation of a worldwide recession.

Details

• FYI: The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 was a U.S. federal law that significantly raised import duties on a wide range of goods. The primary goal was to protect American farmers and industries from foreign competition during the early stages of the Great Depression. It was sponsored by Senator Reed Smoot and Representative Willis Hawley. The act was signed into law by President Herbert Hoover on June 17, 1930. Despite widespread opposition from economists who warned of its potential negative consequences, the bill passed. It dramatically increased tariffs on thousands of imported goods. Other countries retaliated by imposing their own tariffs on American goods, leading to a significant decline in international trade.While it didn’t cause the Great Depression, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act is widely believed to have worsened its severity. The most significant impact was the sharp decline in international trade. Estimating the exact USD loss is difficult due to the complexity of the global economy at the time. However, it is known that U.S. exports fell from roughly 7B USD in 1929, to roughly 2.5B USD in 1932. This drastic drop shows the impact. Tariffs raised the prices of imported goods, making them less affordable for consumers. The decline in trade contributed to bank failures, particularly in agricultural regions. The act further strained the global economy, which was already struggling. The act was intended to protect domestic industries, and in the very short term, some industries may have seen temporary benefits. However, these were greatly outweighed by the negative consequences.
  

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Comment: What’s Wrong With DEMs?

Ils n’ont rien appris, ni rien oublié. This phrase is attributed to Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord, a French diplomat, in reference to the Bourbon Restoration after Napoleon’s fall. It critiques the returning Bourbon monarchy’s inability to adapt to the changes brought about by the French Revolution and Napoleonic era.

It’s fully applicable to DEMs in all the latest election cycles, including the recent one. If you listen to the explanation that DEM-leaning media are giving now for their catastrophic performance in the 2024 elections, you’ll hear that DEMs still think that everything they were doing was perfect — the only mistake they made was being unable to communicate their “achievements” to certain electoral groups.

As the Bourbons, DEMs have absolutely not recognized that their agenda, especially how they treat new independent, uncensored media and new sources of income (like cryptocurrencies), is simply out of date. Their approach to policing media and restricting access to blockchain, and generally their desire to put bureaucracy first, ahead of people — that is what put them down.

However, despite that being up in their face, DEMs once again demonstrate that “They have learned and forgotten nothing.” This adds to my certainty that “maganomics,” together with “magapolitics,” is here to stay for a very long time.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, markets all over the world were volatile in anticipation of tariffs that were to be announced after the closing. Trump imposed a 10% universal tariff, along with additional levies on 60 nations, and 25% duties on auto imports. Many countries, including the EU and China, issued statements criticizing the tariffs as violations of trade rules, calling them an act of ‘bullying.’ The dollar index plunged, and oil also declined as markets became risk-averse following the higher-than-expected tariffs. Gold hit a new all-time-high while BTC, ETH, and SOL are in the red after fluctuating widely.

Thursday

On Thursday, stocks saw their worst drop in over two years, with major indices plummeting. The S&P 500 experienced its biggest fall since 2020 — wiping out around $2 trillion in value. Investors were spooked by Trump’s tariffs, fearing global retaliation and economic damage. Tech stocks led the sell-off, with Apple, Nvidia and retailers Nike and Dollar Tree each falling about 10%. Despite the steep losses, trading remained orderly, though inflation and volatility concerns grew. With tariffs set to start April 5 and more expected, market uncertainty is likely to persist. BTC, ETH, and SOL also dipped but less sharply.

The State Of Markets: In red, the unprecedented tariff war launched by the White House on April 2 weighed heavily on stocks around the world.

Comment: What’s Up With Tariffs?

Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs are based on the country’s trade deficit divided by imports (which is essentially a measure of the proportion of imports that are not offset by exports in a bilateral trade relationship), rather than actual foreign tariffs (WTO).

The administration emphasized the trade deficit as a sign of unfair trade practices so the Trump administration’s approach considered the trade deficit as a key factor. This method reflects a focus on “reciprocity” as a way to reduce the trade deficit, rather than on matching actual foreign tariff rates.

Trade Deficits Are Not Inherently Bad:

• A trade deficit simply means a country imports more than it exports. It’s not necessarily a sign of unfair trade or economic weakness.
• Trade deficits can arise from various factors, including:
• Strong domestic demand for imports.
• Currency exchange rates.
• Differences in economic growth rates.
• Investment flows.
• A trade deficit is not a measure of how fair trade is.

Tariffs Distort Markets:

• Tariffs raise the price of imported goods, making them less competitive.
• This distorts market forces and leads to inefficiencies.
• Consumers pay higher prices, and businesses face increased costs.
• Tariffs can lead to retaliatory tariffs from other countries, harming exports.

Focus on Reciprocity vs. Efficiency:

• The “reciprocal” approach focuses on matching trade imbalances, not on maximizing economic efficiency.
• Economists generally advocate for free trade or trade based on comparative advantage, where countries specialize in producing goods they can make most efficiently.

Ignores Complexities of Global Supply Chains:

• Modern supply chains are highly complex, with goods often crossing borders multiple times.
• Tariffs can disrupt these supply chains, causing significant economic harm.

Focus on the trade deficit is misleading:

• The trade deficit only measures goods, and does not measure services.
  

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Friday

On Friday, the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq all experienced a decline reminiscent of decades past; oil plunged to a three-year low, and gold dropped sharply as investors sold it to meet margin calls, while BTC and even ETH are not budging. It is unprecedented. Partially, this might be explained by the very high volatility of the USD and gold. This has prompted many traders to diversify into alternative asset groups. However, it might just be a short-term reaction, especially given that Powell explicitly warned the markets about inflation and stated that the Fed will react to Trump’s tariffs. Still, BTC being in the green while all the world indexes are in freefall (e.g., the entire Italian market dropped almost 8% in just one day) is a historic event.

The State Of Markets: Absolutely in the red, all the world’s markets and almost all major commodities are in deep decline, responding to an overnight revamp of the 80-year-old global trade system. Crypto has historically stood strong.

On Week 15, markets eye trade war fallout, inflation, and Fed minutes. Europe’s retail and industrial data, plus UK GDP, are due. China’s trade and India’s policy also loom.

Comment: What’s Up With Tariffs? (2)

It would not be a stretch to say that in the past 200 years or so of capitalist market history, all of the accumulated economic experience and theoretical knowledge have taught us a lesson: that even if tariffs work, it’s only short-term, and the negatives massively outweigh the positives. Basically, a “trade war” is 90% the “war,” and only 10% is “trade.” Tariffs are highly disruptive and counterproductive, not only economically but also socially and politically. Bottom line, they should not be used as a tool in the contemporary, modern, open world’s economy at all.

The way it’s currently done by the White House is absolutely and even ridiculously grotesque. It signals the end of international trade as we have known it. Most economists estimate it costs between $2,000 and $5,000 per person per year. This includes both inflation and rising costs. That’s the price each individual will have to pay for a couple of thousand manufacturing jobs returning to the mainland, and also for some politicians feeling “secure” about “national economic security.”

However, all of that said, hasn’t everyone in crypto (myself included) been crying out for at least the past 10 years (pretty much since the advent of BTC on world’s economic scene) about how the current “new-Keynesian” economic paradigm, which is based on heavy bureaucratic regulation of all markets and increasingly less freedom for entrepreneurs and innovators, is unsustainable? Yes, we have been lamenting the new-Keynesian model, but only now has that model been challenged on practice.

Evernomics — Digital Wealth Growth Intellectual Contracts Platform — is your way to invest into your bright future without hassle.

For more on Evernomics: https://evernomics.com/