XRP’s volatile year has entered a new phase, with the token drifting below $2 and sentiment collapsing to levels normally associated with capitulation.
What began as one of the biggest post-election winners – briefly topping $3.60 in July – has since turned into one of the more battered top-10 assets.
But while social mood has deteriorated sharply, market trackers say the setup now looks eerily similar to past moments when XRP staged quick relief rallies.
Key Takeaways
XRP remains near $2 after losing more than 30% in two months, driving social sentiment into fear mode.
RSI and MACD suggest selling momentum is easing rather than accelerating.
Santiment says similar fear collapses recently preceded a 22% upside burst.
Panic Builds, Yet Price Structure Shows Exhaustion Signs
Data from Santiment shows a steep drop in trader confidence over the past two months, placing XRP firmly back in emotional “fear territory.”
Historically, the analytics firm notes, this kind of capitulation has preceded notable rebounds — the most recent being late November’s 22% three-day rally that fizzled when greed returned.
The price chart supports the psychological shift.
XRP’s daily RSI sits in the low-40s, a zone that traders often view as washed-out but not fundamentally broken. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has been flattening beneath zero — an early sign that selling momentum is fading rather than accelerating.
This pairing — fear in sentiment and compression in momentum indicators — is often where contrarian traders start watching for opportunities, not breakdowns.
Santiment argues the current setup resembles the structure seen before recent short-term rallies: investors are pessimistic, discussion sentiment is low, and price action is lethargic near support. Such moments have repeatedly acted as springboards in XRP’s trading history, although the follow-through tends to be brief.
Expert Adds Fuel With a TD Sequential Buy Signal
Adding a new twist, analyst Ali Martinez posted that XRP’s weekly chart has triggered a TD Sequential buy setup — a reversal signal used to identify exhaustion near the end of downtrends.
$XRP is a buy, according to the TD Sequential. pic.twitter.com/uI9s9Qwu6Y
— Ali (@ali_charts) December 5, 2025
His model suggests the token may be close to completing its downside phase, pointing to a potential bounce if buyers show up.
The signal aligns neatly with weakening momentum readings and the collapse in sentiment — conditions that collectively hint the market could be near inflection.
Key Levels Still Matter — This Isn’t a Full Trend Change
Despite the possible upside trigger, XRP has not escaped its broader downtrend. Resistance remains layered near $2.20 and $2.35, while recent rallies have repeatedly failed to stick.
Analysts warn that any bounce emerging from these signals is far more likely to resemble November’s quick upside burst than a sustained breakout. In other words: profitable for traders, not necessarily transformative for the long-term trend.
Still, XRP is shaping up as one of the more interesting charts heading into the week. Sentiment has cratered, momentum has flattened out, and buy signals are appearing — a cocktail that historically precedes at least tactical upside.
Whether traders seize the setup is the question. But for now, the market psychology is shifting from panic to curiosity — and that alone is a departure from the last eight weeks.
