The idea that Bitcoin has become a digital replacement for gold — one of the asset’s most powerful marketing narratives — is facing renewed pushback.
ETF strategist Nate Geraci argues that investors are far too early in declaring Bitcoin a proven store of value, calling for more evidence before the comparison can be taken seriously.
Key Takeaways
Nate Geraci argues Bitcoin hasn’t earned safe-haven status due to unpredictable behavior in downturns.
This year’s market action supported and contradicted the gold analogy in separate episodes.
Bitcoin’s youth and volatility make comparisons with gold premature, despite strong price gains.
Rather than beginning from Bitcoin’s upside potential, Geraci instead highlights what he considers the missing ingredient: performance in moments of stress. Gold, he noted, earned its reputation because people consistently turned to it when broader markets cracked. Bitcoin, by contrast, has not yet demonstrated that kind of reliability — and its recent behavior has given both sides of the debate ammunition.
A Narrative That Rises and Falls With Market Conditions
This year provided a case study in contradiction. When tariff concerns hammered equities in April, Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction, instantly reviving the argument that it responds to instability like a hedge would.
But later — during a separate downturn sparked by weakness in large technology stocks — Bitcoin sank much faster than equities, suffering a deeper drawdown than the market it was supposed to resist.
To Geraci, that inconsistency is the real issue, and it means investors still do not know whether Bitcoin protects or amplifies portfolio risk.
Geraci framed Bitcoin’s immaturity as the core obstacle. At only fifteen years old, the asset hasn’t lived through a wide range of macro shocks, geopolitical crises or recessionary cycles.
Gold had centuries to establish trust; Bitcoin has had a decade and a half, and much of that time was spent in a rate-suppressed era where every risk asset rallied.
This makes comparisons premature, he said — even if high-profile figures such as Binance’s CZ insist Bitcoin is superior to gold because it is more portable, programmable and divisible.
Data Shows Strength and Fragility Coexisting
Bitcoin’s price action reveals the tension Geraci sees.
The asset has more than doubled from its 2024 lows, yet it is also down over 25% from its recent record high — a correction worsened by leveraged trading rather than global macro weakness alone.
To Geraci, the episode reinforces that Bitcoin is still treated as a speculative risk play, not a defensive refuge.
ETF Flows Suggest Investors Haven’t Made Up Their Mind
Even the strongest institutional signal — ETF flows — paints a mixed picture.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs endured sizeable outflows recently, but still boast a net $22 billion in inflows since launch, meaning allocators are entering the market, just not unanimously.
Geraci believes that Bitcoin might evolve into a gold-like asset eventually, particularly as volatility declines and its investor base matures.
Some industry voices expect even more: CZ predicts Bitcoin will surpass gold’s market value entirely.
However, Geraci cautioned that until Bitcoin consistently behaves like a stabilizing force during shocks — rather than sometimes leading sell-offs — calling it “digital gold” is more aspiration than reality.
