Bitcoin could sustain its bull run through 2027 rather than following the traditional four-year market cycle, according to analysts. They argue that global liquidity conditions, not halving events, will drive the extended rally as major economies simultaneously expand monetary policy.
What Happened: Liquidity Shifts
Bull Theory analysts stated in a Dec. 5 post on X that the four-year crypto cycle is weakening. Price movements over the past decade stemmed primarily from changes in global liquidity rather than Bitcoin halving events, they wrote.
Stablecoin liquidity remains elevated despite recent market declines, indicating institutional investors are positioned to deploy capital when macroeconomic conditions improve. The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance currently sits at approximately $940 billion, roughly $90 billion above its typical range. That surplus is expected to flow back into financial markets, boosting liquidity that typically moves into risk assets.
China has injected liquidity for several months. Japan announced a stimulus package worth about $135 billion and is working to simplify cryptocurrency regulations. Canada is moving toward monetary easing, while the US Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening measures.
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Why It Matters: Convergence Of Catalysts
Risk assets like Bitcoin typically respond faster than traditional equities when major economies adopt expansive monetary policies simultaneously, the analysts explained. Policy tools such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption, which allowed banks greater balance sheet flexibility in 2020, could return and increase credit creation.
Political factors may amplify these conditions. President Trump has discussed eliminating income tax and distributing $2,000 tariff dividends. A new Federal Reserve chair supportive of liquidity measures and cryptocurrency could further improve the environment for economic growth, according to Bull Theory.
The Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index (ISM PMI) historically triggers altcoin rallies when it exceeds 55. Bull Theory assigns high probability to this occurring in 2026. The convergence of rising stablecoin liquidity, Treasury cash injections, global quantitative easing, the end of US quantitative tightening, potential bank-lending relief and major institutional crypto adoption suggests a departure from the traditional halving model.
If liquidity expands across the US, Japan, China, Canada and other significant economies concurrently, Bitcoin is unlikely to move against that trend, the analysts concluded. The current environment points toward an extended uptrend spanning through 2026 and into 2027 rather than a sharp rally followed by a prolonged bear market.
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