South Korea’s Korbit Research Center projects Bitcoin to trade between $140,000 and $170,000 in 2026, citing US fiscal policy reforms and structural institutional demand as primary catalysts.
In its fourth annual market outlook, Korbit’s research team outlined a macro-driven thesis diverging from the traditional four-year halving cycle narrative. The report argues that Bitcoin’s price trajectory will be shaped less by supply-side mechanics and more by productivity-led US growth under what it terms “stronger Reaganomics.”
Triple-Axis Rebalancing Puts Bitcoin in Sovereign-Asset Class
The forecast highlights three main drivers reshaping asset allocation. Strong US dollar forecasts, possible gold price corrections, and Bitcoin’s growing institutional presence through ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries fundamentally alter how investors see digital assets. As of November 2025, ETFs and DATs together hold about 11.7% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
Central to the forecast is the One Big Beautiful Bill (OB3), enacted in July 2025. The bill permanently restores 100% bonus depreciation and immediate R&D expensing. Korbit estimates these provisions will reduce effective corporate tax rates to 10-12%, triggering a capital expenditure boom and attracting foreign direct investment. This policy mix, the report contends, will sustain dollar strength, contrary to Wall Street’s consensus that expects depreciation.
In a strong-dollar, disinflationary environment, gold may underperform as a yield-free asset. At the same time, Bitcoin consolidates its position alongside the dollar as a sovereign-grade store of value, possibly leading to gold corrections—even as some analysts project gold at $4,000 per ounce, down 5% from current levels.
This change is challenging older portfolio models. Bitcoin now operates more like a sovereign-level store of value, standing toe-to-toe with gold and the dollar in institutional allocations.
The usual four-year Bitcoin cycle is becoming less relevant. High rates, shrinking liquidity, and slower market rallies have changed the landscape. Rather than a sharp rally by the end of 2025, experts now see price consolidation in the $100,000–$120,000 range, with a possible second peak in 2026 if liquidity returns.
Institutional adoption continues to rise, despite macro headwinds. Bitcoin ETFs are seeing strong inflows since approval, and more companies are adding substantial Digital Asset Treasury holdings. This provides stronger price support and less volatility than in previous cycles.
GENIUS Act Compliance Spurs Layer 1 Blockchain Rivalry
The GENIUS Act, signed in July 2025, delivers clear federal rules for payment stablecoins. White House documentation confirms the law requires 100% reserves in cash or short-term Treasuries from issuers. Regulatory certainty is prompting US banks and institutions to adopt stablecoins swiftly.
This compliance also brings technical demands. Institutions need blockchains with instant finality and privacy features to efficiently meet KYC and AML requirements. Ethereum’s 12-second finality and complete transaction transparency deter institutional users requiring privacy and instant settlement. New Layer 1 networks, including Arc, Tempo, and Plasma, are emerging with selective privacy features and sub-second finality designed for regulatory compliance.
Meanwhile, Solana is making gains in retail use and will introduce Firedancer in early 2026. This upgrade aims for much quicker settlements and higher throughput, which could help Solana win more institutional stablecoin business.
Perpetual DEXs Dominate: Tokenization Pushes DeFi Forward
Decentralized exchanges now account for 7.6% of total cryptocurrency volume as of mid-2025 and could reach 15% by the end of 2026. Perpetual derivatives DEXs are at the forefront, earning most of the top DeFi protocol revenues. OAK Research data shows Hyperliquid held 73% of perpetual DEX market share by June 2025.
Hyperliquid’s dominance comes from efficient trade matching, fast adoption, and creative tokenomics. HYPE token buyback model spurs ongoing demand, and traders can create markets for any asset. Competitors are expanding into real-world assets, FX, commodities, and US equities.
The tokenization of real-world assets has reached $35.6 billion as of November 2025. Growth is led by private credit and US Treasury tokenization. The report expects fintech and web3 firms to drive further adoption, as traditional finance faces hurdles with legacy processes and compatibility issues.
Super-app competition is also heating up. Robinhood integrates stocks, crypto, perpetuals, and real-world assets in a single platform. Coinbase, using CFTC licenses, aims to be the go-to for all on-chain assets and is awaiting regulatory approval for tokenized securities.
Prediction markets are set to benefit as well. Platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion have seen rising volumes and increased regulatory attention. With CFTC approval in the US, these venues are moving closer to the mainstream.
