Standard Chartered on Tuesday reduced its multi-year price outlook for Bitcoin, citing weaker corporate demand and a slower-than-expected pace of ETF inflows.
The bank now expects Bitcoin to reach $500,000 in 2030, a two-year delay from its previous 2028 projection.
What Happened
In a research note shared with Yellow.com, head of digital assets research** Geoffrey Kendrick** wrote that recent price action has forced a reassessment of earlier assumptions.
While Kendrick still expects Bitcoin to post new all-time highs over time, he said the trajectory is likely to be “slower than previously expected.”
Standard Chartered said the sharp 36% decline since Bitcoin’s October peak remains within historical norms and does not signal a renewed “crypto winter.”
Instead, the bank argued that the halving cycle is no longer a meaningful driver and that long-term ETF allocation now holds more weight in price formation.
The downgrade stems largely from expectations that Bitcoin treasury companies or digital asset treasury firms (DATs), are unlikely to resume accumulating Bitcoin at scale.
According to the bank, valuations no longer support expanded balance-sheet exposure to BTC, making further corporate buying improbable.
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While the bank does not expect large-scale selling from DATs, the sector is no longer viewed as a material source of demand.
Why It Matters
With corporate accumulation fading, Standard Chartered now sees ETF flows as the single remaining long-term catalyst for price appreciation.
The bank warned that these flows may also be slower moving than previously assumed, prompting lower year-end forecasts for 2026 through 2029.
Its revised targets now stand at $150,000 for 2026, $225,000 for 2027, $300,000 for 2028 and $400,000 for 2029.
The 2030 forecast remains $500,000, but is pushed back from the earlier timeline.
Despite the downgrade, Standard Chartered maintains that Bitcoin remains structurally under-owned relative to gold in global portfolios and expects institutional allocation trends to persist over time.
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