After weeks of turbulence that drove Bitcoin sharply lower, the crypto market is wrestling with a familiar question: is the bull cycle over? Despite darker crowd sentiment and renewed social media pessimism, some of the biggest voices in traditional finance are pushing a very different message.
The pullback from Bitcoin’s highs, including last month’s dive to around $81,000, reignited headlines about a possible multi-month downturn. Yet JPMorgan says traders are jumping to conclusions. The bank argues that this retreat looks more like a cooling phase after an overheated rally than the start of a long freeze.
Key Takeaways
JPMorgan says recent declines do not signal a new crypto winter.
Bitcoin’s downturn is viewed as a cooling phase rather than a cycle break.
Despite lower market cap and trading volume, stablecoin activity has surged for 17 straight months.
Strategists at the firm noted that Bitcoin’s late-year drop exaggerated bearish narratives because prices had surged unusually fast following President Donald Trump’s re-election. That acceleration, they said, made the correction appear heavier than it truly was.
One detail catching attention is that Bitcoin’s November close put its yearly performance below zero for the first time since mid-2023. While that statistic alarmed some investors, JPMorgan emphasizes that a single negative print doesn’t mark a structural downturn.
Under the Hood, Activity Looks Surprisingly Strong
JPMorgan highlighted that spot trading may have cooled and market capitalization slid over 20%, but the underlying plumbing hasn’t cracked. Stablecoin settlement volume has risen for 17 straight months, something the bank interprets as evidence that users are still transacting and moving value — a critical sign that participation remains intact even when prices fall.
Because of this resilience, the bank concludes that the recent drop lacks the hallmarks of an actual winter phase.
Standard Chartered’s Jeffrey Kendrick echoed a similar stance, saying that this cycle behaves differently from past ones. In his view, the industry is now deep enough — institutionally, structurally, and technologically — that the traditional boom-to-bust winter framework may be outdated.
Where Does That Leave the Market?
Instead of calling time on the bull market, these institutions are effectively saying the opposite: the rally may be bruised, but it isn’t over. Market volatility remains, and opinions still diverge — yet the tone across major banks suggests more upside remains plausible.
With stability in stablecoin flows, continued institutional adoption, and strong brand-level support from entities like JPMorgan and Standard Chartered, the future narrative looks less like collapse and more like consolidation.
Bitcoin Price
Adding to that perspective, Bitcoin’s technical picture has begun to stabilize. On the daily chart, BTC is trading near $93,000, with momentum slowly rebuilding after its recent trough. The RSI has climbed back into neutral territory around 50, hinting at an improving balance between buyers and sellers.
Meanwhile, MACD readings are lifting from deeply negative levels, suggesting that bearish pressure is easing and conditions are shifting toward a potential trend recovery. Although volume remains lighter than the summer peaks, the price structure shows Bitcoin attempting to form higher lows — something analysts view as an early indicator of renewed accumulation.
