Prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket currently show waning optimism about bitcoin closing 2025 above $100,000.

As of December 12, Kalshi estimates just a 42% probability for bitcoin to cross the $100,000 mark by year-end, while Polymarket reflects similar sentiment at 39%.

Current price

At the time of writing, bitcoin trades near $92,230, last exceeding the $100,000 level on November 13.

Observers attribute the restrained price momentum to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and a slowdown in the pace of corporate reserve accumulation.

Data from Capriole Investments points to declining activity among “treasury” companies, suggesting institutional demand may be waning.

Institutional moves and reserve accumulation

Despite the subdued outlook, Polymarket users rate the likelihood of MicroStrategy selling any bitcoin by year-end as extremely low—about 1%.

The company, led by Michael Saylor, increased its bitcoin reserves to 660,624 BTC last week, acquiring an additional 10,624 BTC for around $962.7 million.

Analyst perspective on price surge

Technical analyst Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that bitcoin is once again testing resistance near the year’s opening price.

He suggested that a break and consolidation above $94,000 could potentially open the path to $108,000, based on a “Triangle” chart pattern.

However, he cautioned that price growth may be limited to a retest of the former support zone around $98,000, where significant liquidity is concentrated.

Market outlook for year-end

Coinbase Institutional analysts have predicted a potential rebound for bitcoin in December, attributing optimism to the market recovery following the November correction.

Yet, prediction markets remain cautious, reflecting a broader sense of uncertainty as 2025 approaches.