Grayscale, one of the world’s largest digital asset managers, released its 2026 outlook for digital asset markets on the 12th, addressing growing concerns that quantum computing could undermine Bitcoin’s security.
Quantum Computing Unlikely to Impact Bitcoin, Crypto Prices in 2026: Grayscale
► https://t.co/nLWktCeDrK https://t.co/nLWktCeDrK— Decrypt (@DecryptMedia) December 15, 2025
In its report, Grayscale concluded that quantum computing is unlikely to have any direct impact on cryptocurrency markets or price movements by 2026. While the technology could pose a long-term challenge to blockchain cryptography, the firm emphasized that it does not represent a near-term risk.
Grayscale described quantum-related fears as a “red herring” for the coming year, urging investors not to overreact to speculative threats that are unlikely to materialize in the short term.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Considered Secure Until at Least 2030
According to the report, quantum computers capable of breaking the public-key cryptography used by major networks such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are not expected to emerge before 2030 at the earliest.
Current quantum hardware remains constrained by high error rates, limited qubit counts, and the need for extreme cryogenic conditions. These limitations make it unlikely that quantum systems will reach the scale and stability required to threaten existing cryptographic standards in the near future.
As a result, while research into post-quantum cryptography will continue, Grayscale does not expect the transition to meaningfully influence crypto valuations or market dynamics in 2026.
The firm noted that the real race will be between advances in quantum computing and the pace at which blockchain protocols adopt quantum-resistant security measures. From Grayscale’s perspective, this transition is likely to be manageable for the broader ecosystem.
For investors, understanding these technological fundamentals is increasingly important when identifying long-term digital asset opportunities, including emerging cryptocurrencies with growth potential.
Grayscale Eyes Opportunities in Quantum Technology
Despite dismissing short-term risks, Grayscale expressed strong interest in quantum technology as an investment theme.
In May 2025, the firm filed an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) focused on companies developing or supporting quantum technologies.
The proposed ETF aims to track the S&P Kensho Global Quantum Computing Technologies Index. Potential constituents include pure-play quantum firms such as IonQ and Rigetti Computing, as well as major technology companies like IBM, Google (Alphabet), Microsoft, and Nvidia.
This move reflects growing investor interest in emerging technologies with the potential to disrupt traditional computing, a space where Grayscale has historically introduced investment products ahead of mainstream adoption.
Beyond Risk: Quantum and Blockchain May Converge
Grayscale’s report also highlights that the intersection of quantum computing and blockchain presents not only risks but future opportunities.
Potential developments include quantum-resistant blockchain protocols, the use of quantum-generated randomness for validator selection, and quantum-enabled blockchain systems capable of solving complex optimization problems that are currently infeasible.
While these concepts remain largely theoretical, Grayscale suggests they could eventually open new frontiers for blockchain innovation, potentially impacting the broader digital asset market, including altcoins, over the long term.
